if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn’t change just based on learning that it hasn’t happened before 2021
if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn’t change just based on learning that it hasn’t happened before 2021