I tend to write stuff that gets voted down to oblivion. If you are voting this down, could the first few of you comment why? I’d appreciate learning how I don’t fit in in case this is another of those posts that doesn’t. Thanks in advance.
I extend Martin Gardner’s idea. From a causal perspective, it would make no difference if the BOTH boxes were transparent. At 7 AM the alien puts down two transparent boxes in front of you, one with $1000 in it and one with either $1,000,000 or $0 in it. You can look in and see which he chose for you.
You have personally witnessed at least a thousand trials, and have heard from thousands of other people that you can question, many whom you know well, that have each witnessed at least 1000 trials. What you have seen, and heard these others have seen, is that the alien has NEVER been wrong, that EVERY time he put $1,000,000 in box B, the human took only box B, and EVERY time he put nothing in box B, the human took box A. Further, you have seen at least 20 cases where the Alien put $,1000,000 in box B and $1,000 in box A, and even though the boxes were fixed and transparent, you have seen the human choose only box B in all those cases. Further, you have been told by the other 1000 observers, some of whom you know quite well, and all of whom you have been able to question as you wish, that each of them have witnessed at least 20 cases where both boxes had money in them and the human chose only box B with $1,000,000.
You are sitting there with two boxes in front of you and you can see $1,000,000 in box B and $1,000 in box A. What do you do?
“Rationalists always win.” Clearly an important part of this problem is BELIEF in the existence of, even the possibility of, an intelligence which can have such predictive powers. Faced with two boxes with money in them, you have the opportunity to stick a fork in this theory once and for all, or you can join the religion of the Omnisicient Alien and pick just the $1,000,000.
Amazingly, even if there is no $1,000,000 in front of you, only $1,000, you have the same choice. As stated, the Alien has correctly predicted every time in the past that when the human chose box A, box B was always empty. For a mere $1,000 you can provide the incredibly valuable information that Aliens are not what they seem to be. You can choose only the empty box B and help free humanity free of the superstitious belief in Omnisicient Aliens.
Can it be rational to pick only box B? In this case I maintain, you are not a rationalist, but a convert to the religion of the omniscient Alien. A rationalist can see with no doubt that he would be $1000 richer taking both boxes, AND he could put a hole in this deification process of the alien.
In my opiinion, this version of the problem exposes the likelihood that there is trickery going on. For 100s or 1000s of shows in a row, Siegfried and Roy made a tiger appear from thin air in a thin and isolated cage suspended in empty space above an empty stage. What are the chances that this was really a case of teleportation or spontaneous generation, and not just a trick where a regular tiger was moved some physically understandable way? And yet if you were priveleged to see this trick performed 100 times, most of you would be amazed every time.
What are the chances that there is not some trickery with this alien? Perhaps this alien created AIs which would choose as he knew they would, clothed them in human flesh, and pre-planted them over decades before coming to earth to create the appearance of being able to predict what humans would do. Is this explanation of what we are seeing really LESS likely than that an alien really has this kind of predictive and computational ability? Even humans with a few $1000 can create illusions, I give you the close-up room at the Magic Castle in L.A. as a place where you can go to see the laws of physics violated with as little as $10 investment in props. Is it more likely that an alien could set up an elaborate “sting” on humanity over a hundred years, or that all humans really are predictable down to how they pick a random number, flip a coin, choose someone from the phone book to flip a coin, or read the least significant digit on a voltmeter attachd to a battery they picked at random from an object in their house?
Occams razor says the Alien is tricking you. Everything else is a believe in magic, a return to religion with God as Omniscient Aliens.
I tend to write stuff that gets voted down to oblivion. If you are voting this down, could the first few of you comment why? I’d appreciate learning how I don’t fit in in case this is another of those posts that doesn’t. Thanks in advance.
I extend Martin Gardner’s idea. From a causal perspective, it would make no difference if the BOTH boxes were transparent. At 7 AM the alien puts down two transparent boxes in front of you, one with $1000 in it and one with either $1,000,000 or $0 in it. You can look in and see which he chose for you.
You have personally witnessed at least a thousand trials, and have heard from thousands of other people that you can question, many whom you know well, that have each witnessed at least 1000 trials. What you have seen, and heard these others have seen, is that the alien has NEVER been wrong, that EVERY time he put $1,000,000 in box B, the human took only box B, and EVERY time he put nothing in box B, the human took box A. Further, you have seen at least 20 cases where the Alien put $,1000,000 in box B and $1,000 in box A, and even though the boxes were fixed and transparent, you have seen the human choose only box B in all those cases. Further, you have been told by the other 1000 observers, some of whom you know quite well, and all of whom you have been able to question as you wish, that each of them have witnessed at least 20 cases where both boxes had money in them and the human chose only box B with $1,000,000.
You are sitting there with two boxes in front of you and you can see $1,000,000 in box B and $1,000 in box A. What do you do?
“Rationalists always win.” Clearly an important part of this problem is BELIEF in the existence of, even the possibility of, an intelligence which can have such predictive powers. Faced with two boxes with money in them, you have the opportunity to stick a fork in this theory once and for all, or you can join the religion of the Omnisicient Alien and pick just the $1,000,000.
Amazingly, even if there is no $1,000,000 in front of you, only $1,000, you have the same choice. As stated, the Alien has correctly predicted every time in the past that when the human chose box A, box B was always empty. For a mere $1,000 you can provide the incredibly valuable information that Aliens are not what they seem to be. You can choose only the empty box B and help free humanity free of the superstitious belief in Omnisicient Aliens.
Can it be rational to pick only box B? In this case I maintain, you are not a rationalist, but a convert to the religion of the omniscient Alien. A rationalist can see with no doubt that he would be $1000 richer taking both boxes, AND he could put a hole in this deification process of the alien.
In my opiinion, this version of the problem exposes the likelihood that there is trickery going on. For 100s or 1000s of shows in a row, Siegfried and Roy made a tiger appear from thin air in a thin and isolated cage suspended in empty space above an empty stage. What are the chances that this was really a case of teleportation or spontaneous generation, and not just a trick where a regular tiger was moved some physically understandable way? And yet if you were priveleged to see this trick performed 100 times, most of you would be amazed every time.
What are the chances that there is not some trickery with this alien? Perhaps this alien created AIs which would choose as he knew they would, clothed them in human flesh, and pre-planted them over decades before coming to earth to create the appearance of being able to predict what humans would do. Is this explanation of what we are seeing really LESS likely than that an alien really has this kind of predictive and computational ability? Even humans with a few $1000 can create illusions, I give you the close-up room at the Magic Castle in L.A. as a place where you can go to see the laws of physics violated with as little as $10 investment in props. Is it more likely that an alien could set up an elaborate “sting” on humanity over a hundred years, or that all humans really are predictable down to how they pick a random number, flip a coin, choose someone from the phone book to flip a coin, or read the least significant digit on a voltmeter attachd to a battery they picked at random from an object in their house?
Occams razor says the Alien is tricking you. Everything else is a believe in magic, a return to religion with God as Omniscient Aliens.