I don’t see how your first bullet point is much evidence for the second, unless you have reason to believe that the Willow chip has a level of performance much greater than experts predicted at this point in time.
The question is how we should extrapolate, and in particular if we should extrapolate faster than experts currently predict. You would need to show that Willow represents unusually fast progress relative to expert predictions. It’s not enough to say that it seems very impressive.
I extrapolate faster, because experts were wrong about AGI “after 2050” and they were wrong about predicting explosive growth of Bitcoin. In general they are usually too conservative, so odds are experts will be wrong about quantum supremacy as well.
I don’t see how your first bullet point is much evidence for the second, unless you have reason to believe that the Willow chip has a level of performance much greater than experts predicted at this point in time.
I meant extrapolating developments in the future.
The question is how we should extrapolate, and in particular if we should extrapolate faster than experts currently predict. You would need to show that Willow represents unusually fast progress relative to expert predictions. It’s not enough to say that it seems very impressive.
I extrapolate faster, because experts were wrong about AGI “after 2050” and they were wrong about predicting explosive growth of Bitcoin. In general they are usually too conservative, so odds are experts will be wrong about quantum supremacy as well.