This is a question really, not a post, I just can’t find the answer formally. Does laplace’s rule of succession work when you are taking from a finite population without replacement? If I know that some papers in a hat have “yes” on them, and I know that the rest don’t, and that there is a finite amount of papers, and every time I take a paper out I burn it, but I have no clue how many papers are in the hat, should I still use laplace’s rule to figure out how much to expect the next paper to have a “yes” on it? or is there some adjustment you make, since every time I see a yes paper the odds of yes papers:~yes papers in the hat goes down.
Statisticsish Question
This is a question really, not a post, I just can’t find the answer formally. Does laplace’s rule of succession work when you are taking from a finite population without replacement? If I know that some papers in a hat have “yes” on them, and I know that the rest don’t, and that there is a finite amount of papers, and every time I take a paper out I burn it, but I have no clue how many papers are in the hat, should I still use laplace’s rule to figure out how much to expect the next paper to have a “yes” on it? or is there some adjustment you make, since every time I see a yes paper the odds of yes papers:~yes papers in the hat goes down.