I think you are looking at this from an evolutionary point of view? Then it makes sense to make statements like “more and more complex states are less likely” (i.e., they take more time) and “intelligence increases with the complexity” (of organisms).
Outside this context, though, I have trouble understanding what is meant by “complicated” or why “more intelligent” should be more complex. In fact, you could skip right from (1) to (3) -- most theists would be comfortable asserting that God is maximally complex. However, is response to (1) they might counter with—if something does exist, you can’t use its improbability to negate that it exists.
It is true that if something does exist you can’t use its improbability to negate its existence. But this option is allowed for in the argument; “unless there is other evidence or it has other properties that make its existence maximally more likely”. So if God is, say, necessary, then he is going to exist no matter his likelihood. What this argument does is set a really low prior for the probability that God exists. There is never going to be one argument that proves atheism because no argument is going to rule out the existence of evidence the other way. The best we can do is give a really low initial probability and wait to hear arguments that swing us the other way AND show that some conceptions of God are contradictory or impossible.
Edit- You’re right though, if you mean that there is a problem with the phrasing “maximally unlikely” if there is still a chance for its existence. Certainly “maximally unlikely” cannot mean “0”.
I think you are looking at this from an evolutionary point of view? Then it makes sense to make statements like “more and more complex states are less likely” (i.e., they take more time) and “intelligence increases with the complexity” (of organisms).
Outside this context, though, I have trouble understanding what is meant by “complicated” or why “more intelligent” should be more complex. In fact, you could skip right from (1) to (3) -- most theists would be comfortable asserting that God is maximally complex. However, is response to (1) they might counter with—if something does exist, you can’t use its improbability to negate that it exists.
I’m not sure most theists would be comfortable asserting that God is maximally complex.
The wikipedia article Complexity looks helpful.
It is true that if something does exist you can’t use its improbability to negate its existence. But this option is allowed for in the argument; “unless there is other evidence or it has other properties that make its existence maximally more likely”. So if God is, say, necessary, then he is going to exist no matter his likelihood. What this argument does is set a really low prior for the probability that God exists. There is never going to be one argument that proves atheism because no argument is going to rule out the existence of evidence the other way. The best we can do is give a really low initial probability and wait to hear arguments that swing us the other way AND show that some conceptions of God are contradictory or impossible.
Edit- You’re right though, if you mean that there is a problem with the phrasing “maximally unlikely” if there is still a chance for its existence. Certainly “maximally unlikely” cannot mean “0”.