Initially, I did not nominate this post, for reasons similar to Habryka’s note that “it kind of pattern-matches to a narrative that I feel performs badly on some reference-class forecasting perspectives”.
But, upon reflection: the hypotheses here do feel “important if true”, and moreover the model seems plausible. And, regardless, “What exactly is modern internet culture doing to us?” seems like a really important question, which I’d like to have seriously investigated. It seems like exactly the sort of thing rationality is for: a high stakes question with limited information, potentially with only a limited window to get the answer right.
So, this nomination is not (necessarily) because I think this should be included in the Best of 2018 book, but because I want the claims to get more thorough review/operationalization/thinking-about-what-future-work-is-helpful. (Meanwhile, I’ve definitely thought a lot about in in the past year)
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(Addenda: I also think this might have been the post that crystallized the idea of “hypercompetition can produce worse results” for me, including domains like college admissions and hiring. I think I’ve gotten that from a few different places but I noticed that point on the re-read here and it’s definitely a hypothesis I consider more often now)
Re your addendum, to make an almost-obvious point, over-optimizing producing worse results is what large parts of modern life are all about; typically over-optimizing on evolved behaviours. Fat/sugar, porn, watching TV (as a substitute for real life), gambling (risk-taking to seek reward), consumerism and indeed excess money-seeking (accumulating unnecessary resources), etc. The bad results often take the form of addictions.
Though some such things are arguably harmless (e.g. professional sport—building unnecessary muscles/abilities full-time to win a pointless status contest).
Initially, I did not nominate this post, for reasons similar to Habryka’s note that “it kind of pattern-matches to a narrative that I feel performs badly on some reference-class forecasting perspectives”.
But, upon reflection: the hypotheses here do feel “important if true”, and moreover the model seems plausible. And, regardless, “What exactly is modern internet culture doing to us?” seems like a really important question, which I’d like to have seriously investigated. It seems like exactly the sort of thing rationality is for: a high stakes question with limited information, potentially with only a limited window to get the answer right.
So, this nomination is not (necessarily) because I think this should be included in the Best of 2018 book, but because I want the claims to get more thorough review/operationalization/thinking-about-what-future-work-is-helpful. (Meanwhile, I’ve definitely thought a lot about in in the past year)
...
(Addenda: I also think this might have been the post that crystallized the idea of “hypercompetition can produce worse results” for me, including domains like college admissions and hiring. I think I’ve gotten that from a few different places but I noticed that point on the re-read here and it’s definitely a hypothesis I consider more often now)
Re your addendum, to make an almost-obvious point, over-optimizing producing worse results is what large parts of modern life are all about; typically over-optimizing on evolved behaviours. Fat/sugar, porn, watching TV (as a substitute for real life), gambling (risk-taking to seek reward), consumerism and indeed excess money-seeking (accumulating unnecessary resources), etc. The bad results often take the form of addictions.
Though some such things are arguably harmless (e.g. professional sport—building unnecessary muscles/abilities full-time to win a pointless status contest).