If you keep updating such that you always “think AGI is <10 years away” then you will never work on things that take longer than 15 years to help. This is absolutely a mistake, and it should at least be corrected after the first round of “let’s not work on things that take too long because AGI is coming in the next 10 years”. I will definitely be collecting my Bayes points https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTDfraZab47KiRMmT/views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on-strategy-to-reduce
If you keep updating such that you always “think AGI is <10 years away” then you will never work on things that take longer than 15 years to help. This is absolutely a mistake, and it should at least be corrected after the first round of “let’s not work on things that take too long because AGI is coming in the next 10 years”. I will definitely be collecting my Bayes points https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTDfraZab47KiRMmT/views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on-strategy-to-reduce