Within a system with competition, why would the most TRUE thing win? No, the most effective thing wins.
Why do you assume truth even exists? To me, it seems like there are just different beliefs that are more or less effective at proliferation. For example, in 1300s Venice, any belief except Catholicism would destroy its hosts pretty quickly. Today, the same beliefs would get shouted down by scientific communities and legislated out of schools.
That assumes the law of non-contradiction. I could hold the belief that everything will happen in the future, and my prediction will be right every time. Alternatively, I can adjust my memory of a prediction to be exactly what I experience now.
Also, predicting the future only seems useful insofar as it lets the belief propagate better. The more rational and patient the hosts are, the more useful this skill becomes. But, if you’re thrown into a short-run game (say ~80yrs) that’s already at an evolutionary equilibrium, combining this skill with the law of non-contradiction (i.e. only holding consistent beliefs) may get you killed.
Why do you assume truth even exists? To me, it seems like there are just different beliefs that are more or less effective at proliferation. For example, in 1300s Venice, any belief except Catholicism would destroy its hosts pretty quickly. Today, the same beliefs would get shouted down by scientific communities and legislated out of schools.
Some beliefs can be worse or better at predicting what we observe, this is not the same thing as popularity.
That assumes the law of non-contradiction. I could hold the belief that everything will happen in the future, and my prediction will be right every time. Alternatively, I can adjust my memory of a prediction to be exactly what I experience now.
Also, predicting the future only seems useful insofar as it lets the belief propagate better. The more rational and patient the hosts are, the more useful this skill becomes. But, if you’re thrown into a short-run game (say ~80yrs) that’s already at an evolutionary equilibrium, combining this skill with the law of non-contradiction (i.e. only holding consistent beliefs) may get you killed.