I think that conceptually, the SDO paper is just saying:
“Hey, for all we know, maybe one or more of the factors in the Drake equation is many orders of magnitude smaller than our best guess; and if it is, then there’s no more Fermi paradox”.
I think it’s a stretch to describe that sentence as “dissolving the Fermi paradox”. That sentence was always an obvious possibility. The whole crux of the Drake equation / Fermi paradox dispute here is that a bunch of people believe that the factors they’re assigning are not in fact orders of magnitude too high. I think SDO are just sidestepping the actual issue.
To be a bit mean, it’s kinda like if I were to say: “Drake & Sagan estimated 1,000–100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. And Tipler & Barrow argued for different Drake equation parameters such that there’s <<1 civilization per galaxy. Well I’m too lazy to adjudicate this debate, so I’ll just say there’s a 50% chance that Drake & Sagan are right, and a 50% chance that Tipler & Barrow are right. And voila, now there’s a 50% chance that we’re alone. Hey look, I dissolved the Fermi paradox! Go me!”
(There’s some chance that I’m misunderstanding. Not an expert.)
Have any of the people who claim to know proof that none of the factors are orders of magnitude too high provided any description of that proof anywhere? Otherwise I don’t see why I should trust them over the SDO paper (as the SDO paper makes weaker assertions).
I think that conceptually, the SDO paper is just saying:
I think it’s a stretch to describe that sentence as “dissolving the Fermi paradox”. That sentence was always an obvious possibility. The whole crux of the Drake equation / Fermi paradox dispute here is that a bunch of people believe that the factors they’re assigning are not in fact orders of magnitude too high. I think SDO are just sidestepping the actual issue.
To be a bit mean, it’s kinda like if I were to say: “Drake & Sagan estimated 1,000–100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. And Tipler & Barrow argued for different Drake equation parameters such that there’s <<1 civilization per galaxy. Well I’m too lazy to adjudicate this debate, so I’ll just say there’s a 50% chance that Drake & Sagan are right, and a 50% chance that Tipler & Barrow are right. And voila, now there’s a 50% chance that we’re alone. Hey look, I dissolved the Fermi paradox! Go me!”
(There’s some chance that I’m misunderstanding. Not an expert.)
Have any of the people who claim to know proof that none of the factors are orders of magnitude too high provided any description of that proof anywhere? Otherwise I don’t see why I should trust them over the SDO paper (as the SDO paper makes weaker assertions).