I don’t think that’s relevant. If a copy would be not surprised to learn that it is the winning copy, does that mean it would be surprised to learn that it is not the winning copy? Or is it sensible that the lower probability event be the higher surprise event?
Of course, the winning copy will have some kind of self-awareness “Oh, I’m that copy” but of course it has a memory of expecting exactly that from the copy that won the lottery.
I think this is where your view breaks down.Each individual should be unsurprised that an individual will win. But each individual should be as surprised that they are the lucky winning copy as a normal person would be surprised that they are the lucky person winning a normal lottery. All you’ve done is reduced the interpersonal distance between the different lottery players, not changed the underlying probabilities- and so while the level of surprise may decrease on other issues (like predicting what the winnings will be used for) it shouldn’t decrease on the location of the winner.
That may make clearer my view, if you word it as “this one shares a cell with the winning ticket” rather than “I won the lottery,” then personhood and identity isn’t an issue besides the physical aspect.
I don’t think that’s relevant. If a copy would be not surprised to learn that it is the winning copy, does that mean it would be surprised to learn that it is not the winning copy? Or is it sensible that the lower probability event be the higher surprise event?
I think this is where your view breaks down.Each individual should be unsurprised that an individual will win. But each individual should be as surprised that they are the lucky winning copy as a normal person would be surprised that they are the lucky person winning a normal lottery. All you’ve done is reduced the interpersonal distance between the different lottery players, not changed the underlying probabilities- and so while the level of surprise may decrease on other issues (like predicting what the winnings will be used for) it shouldn’t decrease on the location of the winner.
That may make clearer my view, if you word it as “this one shares a cell with the winning ticket” rather than “I won the lottery,” then personhood and identity isn’t an issue besides the physical aspect.