The difference becomes less clear when dealing with groups of people, societies. Explaining things to a group of people, that is more often (as an anthropomorphism) like dealing with an insane person.
Perhaps it would be less confusing to treat a society as if it were a single organism, of which the people within it are analogous to cells rather than agents with minds of their own. I’m not sure how far such an approach would get but it might be interesting.
until then, we need some other kind of results.
CFAR might be able to demonstrate such after a few more years of their workshops. I’m not sure how they’re measuring results, but I would be surprised if they were not doing so.
CFAR planned to do some statistics about how the minicamp attendees’ lives have changed after a year, using a control group of people who applied to minicamps but were not admitted. Not perfect, but pretty good. And the year from the first minicamps is approximately now (for me it will be in one month). But the samples are very small.
With regards to PR, I am not sure if this will work. I mean, even if the results are good, only the people who care about statistical results will be impressed by them. It’s a circular problem: you need to already have some rationality to be able to be impressed by rational arguments. -- Because you may also say: yeah, those guys are trying so hard, and I will just pray or think positively and the same results will come to me, too. And if they don’t, that just means I have to pray or think positively more. Or even: statistics doesn’t prove anything, I feel it in my heart that rationality is cold and can’t make anyone happy.
I agree. But optimizing for good storytelling is different from optimizing for good science. A good scientific result would be like: “minicamp attendees are 12% more efficient in their lives, plus or minus 3.5%”. A good story would be “this awesome thing happened to an minicamp attendee” (ignoring the fact that equivalent thing happened to a person in the control group).
Maybe the best would be to publish both, and let readers pick their favourite part.
Perhaps it would be less confusing to treat a society as if it were a single organism, of which the people within it are analogous to cells rather than agents with minds of their own. I’m not sure how far such an approach would get but it might be interesting.
CFAR might be able to demonstrate such after a few more years of their workshops. I’m not sure how they’re measuring results, but I would be surprised if they were not doing so.
CFAR planned to do some statistics about how the minicamp attendees’ lives have changed after a year, using a control group of people who applied to minicamps but were not admitted. Not perfect, but pretty good. And the year from the first minicamps is approximately now (for me it will be in one month). But the samples are very small.
With regards to PR, I am not sure if this will work. I mean, even if the results are good, only the people who care about statistical results will be impressed by them. It’s a circular problem: you need to already have some rationality to be able to be impressed by rational arguments. -- Because you may also say: yeah, those guys are trying so hard, and I will just pray or think positively and the same results will come to me, too. And if they don’t, that just means I have to pray or think positively more. Or even: statistics doesn’t prove anything, I feel it in my heart that rationality is cold and can’t make anyone happy.
I think that people who don’t care about statistics are still likely to be impressed by vivid stories, not that I have any numbers to prove this.
I agree. But optimizing for good storytelling is different from optimizing for good science. A good scientific result would be like: “minicamp attendees are 12% more efficient in their lives, plus or minus 3.5%”. A good story would be “this awesome thing happened to an minicamp attendee” (ignoring the fact that equivalent thing happened to a person in the control group).
Maybe the best would be to publish both, and let readers pick their favourite part.
I’m sure they’ll be publishing both stories and statistics.