Indeed, it is manifestly clear from this sentence in his comment:
What odds does “manifestly clear” imply when you say it? I believe he was referring to either X or Y as otherwise the content of the statement containing “one and only one...X or Y” would be a confusing...coincidence is the best word I can think of. So I think it most likely “call that a statement” is a very poorly worded phrase referring to simultaneously separately statement X or statement Y.
In general, there is a problem with prescribing taboo when one of the two parties is claiming a third party is wrong.
I am impressed by your patience in light of my comments. I think it not terribly unlikely that in this argument I am the equivalent of Jordan Leopold or Ray Fittipaldo (not an expert!), while you are Andy Sutton.
But I still don’t think that’s probable, and think it is easy to see that you have cheated at rationalist’s taboo as one term is replacing the excluded ones, a sure sign that mere label swapping has taken place.
I still think that if I only know that something is a hypothesis and know nothing more, I have enough knowledge to examine how I know that and use an estimate of the hypothesis’ bits that is superior to a raw 0%. I don’t think “a Bayesian with literally zero information about whether a hypothesis is true or false” is a meaningful sentence. You know it’s a hypothesis because you have information. Granted, the final probability you estimate could be 50⁄50.
What odds does “manifestly clear” imply when you say it? I believe he was referring to either X or Y as otherwise the content of the statement containing “one and only one...X or Y” would be a confusing...coincidence is the best word I can think of. So I think it most likely “call that a statement” is a very poorly worded phrase referring to simultaneously separately statement X or statement Y.
In general, there is a problem with prescribing taboo when one of the two parties is claiming a third party is wrong.
I am impressed by your patience in light of my comments. I think it not terribly unlikely that in this argument I am the equivalent of Jordan Leopold or Ray Fittipaldo (not an expert!), while you are Andy Sutton.
But I still don’t think that’s probable, and think it is easy to see that you have cheated at rationalist’s taboo as one term is replacing the excluded ones, a sure sign that mere label swapping has taken place.
I still think that if I only know that something is a hypothesis and know nothing more, I have enough knowledge to examine how I know that and use an estimate of the hypothesis’ bits that is superior to a raw 0%. I don’t think “a Bayesian with literally zero information about whether a hypothesis is true or false” is a meaningful sentence. You know it’s a hypothesis because you have information. Granted, the final probability you estimate could be 50⁄50.