OTOH, if you specify “events that the average human observer would use the word ‘supernatural’ to describe”, the probability is very high.
How about “events that the average human observer would use the word ‘supernatural’ to describe, even given some knowledge about their nature (regardless of whether that knowledge would be available to the average human observer)”?
So a ghost that is a spirit is supernatural while a ghost that is a hallucination is not, even if an average human observer would be unable to tell them apart.
How about messages from outside the simulation? The simulation itself may be running in an orderly material universe (we could call this “exonatural”), and may run according to fixed orderly rules most of the time (“usually endonatural”), but still allow the simulators to tweak it. As an analogy, consider what happens in Conway’s Life when you pause it and draw or erase a glider.
We can discuss it and maybe agree on an interesting meaning that we could ask people about. The problem is that I don’t think all participants in this poll interpreted the question in the same way.
As for your example, it doesn’t illuminate a general rule for me. If supernatural things can actually happen, what is the definition of “supernatural”?
How about “events that the average human observer would use the word ‘supernatural’ to describe, even given some knowledge about their nature (regardless of whether that knowledge would be available to the average human observer)”?
So a ghost that is a spirit is supernatural while a ghost that is a hallucination is not, even if an average human observer would be unable to tell them apart.
How about messages from outside the simulation? The simulation itself may be running in an orderly material universe (we could call this “exonatural”), and may run according to fixed orderly rules most of the time (“usually endonatural”), but still allow the simulators to tweak it. As an analogy, consider what happens in Conway’s Life when you pause it and draw or erase a glider.
We can discuss it and maybe agree on an interesting meaning that we could ask people about. The problem is that I don’t think all participants in this poll interpreted the question in the same way.
As for your example, it doesn’t illuminate a general rule for me. If supernatural things can actually happen, what is the definition of “supernatural”?