I still think that the two types of deterrence ought to be distinguished, as they differ on the key point of whether a punishment has to actually happen in order for deterrence to take place.
Recall the hypothetical raised here on LW wherein the US, immediately after WW2, declares that any other country found to be pursuing nuclear weapons will be immediately nuked. Ignoring the many moral and practical difficulties of that policy, it at least is an example where leaders would strongly prefer subjunctive deterrence to suffice.
I agree that it’s an important point that the punishment doesn’t actually have to ever happen in order for the deterrent to work. Agree 100% on that. Nor do I think that I’m really saying that there isn’t a distinction—what I’m arguing is that the distinction is which side of the coin you’re looking at.
However, to split another hair, the WW2 example that you mention (I didn’t see the original mention so I may be wrong about this) depends strongly for its deterrent effect on the fact that the US actually did drop atomic bombs on Japan, which created an example for the world to look at and learn from. I don’t doubt that there would be a deterrent effect merely by demonstrating the bomb on fake houses and people, but actually dropping the bomb on populated areas probably greatly increased the seriousness with which everyone takes the atom bomb.
I still think that the two types of deterrence ought to be distinguished, as they differ on the key point of whether a punishment has to actually happen in order for deterrence to take place.
Recall the hypothetical raised here on LW wherein the US, immediately after WW2, declares that any other country found to be pursuing nuclear weapons will be immediately nuked. Ignoring the many moral and practical difficulties of that policy, it at least is an example where leaders would strongly prefer subjunctive deterrence to suffice.
I agree that it’s an important point that the punishment doesn’t actually have to ever happen in order for the deterrent to work. Agree 100% on that. Nor do I think that I’m really saying that there isn’t a distinction—what I’m arguing is that the distinction is which side of the coin you’re looking at.
However, to split another hair, the WW2 example that you mention (I didn’t see the original mention so I may be wrong about this) depends strongly for its deterrent effect on the fact that the US actually did drop atomic bombs on Japan, which created an example for the world to look at and learn from. I don’t doubt that there would be a deterrent effect merely by demonstrating the bomb on fake houses and people, but actually dropping the bomb on populated areas probably greatly increased the seriousness with which everyone takes the atom bomb.