In what world is giving the second dose to the same person, raising them from 87% to 96% protected, a higher priority than vaccinating a second person?
One benefit of 96 vs 87 is that the former could allow you to live an un-quarantined life, while the latter wouldn’t result in much behavioral change. Clearly, the one-dose is better for net deaths etc, but the QALY calculation looks a little different.
I still agree with you. But it’s worth considering the above reasoning for completeness.
Agreed that this is the counter-argument, if you think that 87% wouldn’t be enough to allow changes in behavior—which of course can also be an advantage, since now you really did reduce that person’s risk by 87%, and the risk of them infecting others too.
Note that when I ask, for myself, whether 87% now (with 96% coming in 4-6 months) would be enough for me to un-quarantine, I get a strong yes. I would still not take ‘stupid’ risks but would mostly e.g. see friends freely.
One benefit of 96 vs 87 is that the former could allow you to live an un-quarantined life, while the latter wouldn’t result in much behavioral change. Clearly, the one-dose is better for net deaths etc, but the QALY calculation looks a little different.
I still agree with you. But it’s worth considering the above reasoning for completeness.
Agreed that this is the counter-argument, if you think that 87% wouldn’t be enough to allow changes in behavior—which of course can also be an advantage, since now you really did reduce that person’s risk by 87%, and the risk of them infecting others too.
Note that when I ask, for myself, whether 87% now (with 96% coming in 4-6 months) would be enough for me to un-quarantine, I get a strong yes. I would still not take ‘stupid’ risks but would mostly e.g. see friends freely.