Ah yes, I think you’re right. To me it seems that one dose efficacy is approx 80% from that table, and the two dose is still the old approx 95%. So it’s more like an 80% to 95% upgrade than 87% to 97%.
Zvi’s main point likely still stands, but the personal immunity question is less clear [ETA even on a population level it’s somewhat less clear, once you consider the confidence intervals: given 55% to 92% CI, one-shot efficacy could turn out to be below 70%, in which case things depend a lot on the homogeneity of populations, the precision of your targeting, and post vaccination behaviour changes]
I was responding to other people saying what the numbers were and didn’t attempt to read the chart in detail—it was more ‘oh grab the primary source and that looks about right’ because as usual things move quickly.
But yes, the first dose being much more than half the total is all it takes to draw the same conclusion.
Ah yes, I think you’re right.
To me it seems that one dose efficacy is approx 80% from that table, and the two dose is still the old approx 95%. So it’s more like an 80% to 95% upgrade than 87% to 97%.
Zvi’s main point likely still stands, but the personal immunity question is less clear [ETA even on a population level it’s somewhat less clear, once you consider the confidence intervals: given 55% to 92% CI, one-shot efficacy could turn out to be below 70%, in which case things depend a lot on the homogeneity of populations, the precision of your targeting, and post vaccination behaviour changes]
I was responding to other people saying what the numbers were and didn’t attempt to read the chart in detail—it was more ‘oh grab the primary source and that looks about right’ because as usual things move quickly.
But yes, the first dose being much more than half the total is all it takes to draw the same conclusion.