I just want to flag that I find this point much more concerning than the point about hospital crowding (which I think is already factored in to some degree by current CFR estimates). I didn’t know about virtually all Singapore cases requiring hospitalization. But I notice I’m confused. If that’s true, then where does the impression come from that there are so many mild cases? You seem to say it’s mostly timing and that mild cases eventually become severe. But it would seem that if this tended to happen, surely we’d have heard about it earlier than now? (And also it would mean that China must have about 10x more deaths than they are reporting.)
Edit: Okay I see this wasn’t your point. In that case, ignore my comment.
I didn’t know about virtually all Singapore cases requiring hospitalization.
That wasn’t my point. I think they were hospitalized for isolation and observation/treatment, not because they required it. My understanding is that “severely ill” are the ones truly requiring hospitalization, i.e., would probably die without it.
Looks like the Diamond Princess cruise ship will be a godsend. Data from people who have been blanket tested over and over and so you actually know you have a good population that you can follow the disease course and know you are not missing anyone.
I just want to flag that I find this point much more concerning than the point about hospital crowding (which I think is already factored in to some degree by current CFR estimates). I didn’t know about virtually all Singapore cases requiring hospitalization. But I notice I’m confused. If that’s true, then where does the impression come from that there are so many mild cases? You seem to say it’s mostly timing and that mild cases eventually become severe. But it would seem that if this tended to happen, surely we’d have heard about it earlier than now? (And also it would mean that China must have about 10x more deaths than they are reporting.)
Edit: Okay I see this wasn’t your point. In that case, ignore my comment.
That wasn’t my point. I think they were hospitalized for isolation and observation/treatment, not because they required it. My understanding is that “severely ill” are the ones truly requiring hospitalization, i.e., would probably die without it.
Looks like the Diamond Princess cruise ship will be a godsend. Data from people who have been blanket tested over and over and so you actually know you have a good population that you can follow the disease course and know you are not missing anyone.