Just saw this just now. Basically, it’s evidence that the virus has been spreading below the radar in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. People on the sub are taking this to mean the fatality rate is lower than commonly thought, since we should be seeing more hospitalizations if it truly is 20% serious. That said, I’m not sure I agree with that take -- 6 weeks of spread from 1 initial person is only ~100 people I think, and maybe 20 serious cases of influenza could go under the radar.
Also, due to exponential spread, most of the 100 (or low hundreds) will have been infected recently, not enough time to have progressed to “severely ill” yet.
9 people have died in the Seattle area now, which is higher than even what I was expecting, given that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed yet, and not that many people should have gotten infected early enough to have progressed so far in their disease. (Average time from symptoms to death is 14 days.) Might be just an outlier with a nursing home having gotten infected early, but there are 2 deaths even outside that.
Just saw this just now. Basically, it’s evidence that the virus has been spreading below the radar in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. People on the sub are taking this to mean the fatality rate is lower than commonly thought, since we should be seeing more hospitalizations if it truly is 20% serious. That said, I’m not sure I agree with that take -- 6 weeks of spread from 1 initial person is only ~100 people I think, and maybe 20 serious cases of influenza could go under the radar.
Also, due to exponential spread, most of the 100 (or low hundreds) will have been infected recently, not enough time to have progressed to “severely ill” yet.
9 people have died in the Seattle area now, which is higher than even what I was expecting, given that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed yet, and not that many people should have gotten infected early enough to have progressed so far in their disease. (Average time from symptoms to death is 14 days.) Might be just an outlier with a nursing home having gotten infected early, but there are 2 deaths even outside that.