I’m also arguing that we might just have many fewer severe cases than these right-tail estimates are indicating. So far, Hubei has only had .1% of their population get confirmed cases, for example, and I think that many scenarios in which >10% of people are infected globally are ones in which the actual number of cases in Hubei is much larger than .1%.
I also think there are more reasons for expecting fewer severe cases in many parts of the world than in China, like the increased prevalence of smoking in China, relative to places like the US.
in which the actual number of cases in Hubei is much larger than .1%.
I think Wei Dai’s position is compatible with there being 10x as many undiagnosed cases in Hubei as diagnosed ones. But maybe you’re suggesting that it could be more like 50x?
10x currently seems like the right ballpark to me.
Those predictions are based on 80% of cases being mild. My claim is that if 90% of cases are undiagnosed, then substantially less than 20% will be severe.
I’m also arguing that we might just have many fewer severe cases than these right-tail estimates are indicating. So far, Hubei has only had .1% of their population get confirmed cases, for example, and I think that many scenarios in which >10% of people are infected globally are ones in which the actual number of cases in Hubei is much larger than .1%.
I also think there are more reasons for expecting fewer severe cases in many parts of the world than in China, like the increased prevalence of smoking in China, relative to places like the US.
I think Wei Dai’s position is compatible with there being 10x as many undiagnosed cases in Hubei as diagnosed ones. But maybe you’re suggesting that it could be more like 50x?
10x currently seems like the right ballpark to me.
Those predictions are based on 80% of cases being mild. My claim is that if 90% of cases are undiagnosed, then substantially less than 20% will be severe.
Then you wouldn’t expect close contacts to both have severe disease frequently. I think this has occurred too frequently.