Lukas_Gloor comments on What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?

[Lukas_Gloor]

in which the actual number of cases in Hubei is much larger than .1%.

I think Wei Dai’s position is compatible with there being 10x as many undiagnosed cases in Hubei as diagnosed ones. But maybe you’re suggesting that it could be more like 50x?

10x currently seems like the right ballpark to me.

[Richard Korzekwa]

Those predictions are based on 80% of cases being mild. My claim is that if 90% of cases are undiagnosed, then substantially less than 20% will be severe.

[CellBioGuy]

Then you wouldn’t expect close contacts to both have severe disease frequently. I think this has occurred too frequently.