Do you think shorting the market is a good idea still?
If 2.5 to 10% of the world population will indeed die, I cannot possibly see how the stock market would be low right now. A global recession or depression would result and that would be much worse than where it’s at now.
What’s your model for why 2.5-10% of the world dying causes a global recession? It’s plausible to me from the mortality demographics that the risk of death is much higher among older people, and the impact on the workforce will be small, on the order of 0.4% of the workforce for 2.5% of the population. So while it’s a bit morbid to think about, it is not obvious mortality causes a sustained economic downturn.
Widespread panic and quarantine also seems dangerous to the economy. But there was pretty strong panic in Hong Kong during SARS, and the result was a V-shaped recovery: a transient shock, followed by increased economic growth the following year. The current coronavirus will surely last longer and have more psychological weight due to the sheer number of deaths and global nature, but I don’t have a concrete picture of how that leads to a recession.
Is the 5-10% global mortality prediction conditional on COVID-19 infecting >10% of the world, or unconditional?
It’s more or less unconditional at this point, since it’s not clear what could stop the virus from infecting >10% of the world. If you watch the press conferences for the Seattle-area outbreak, the officials in charge are saying it’s unlikely that they can contain it.
What do you think of the prospects for antivirals like remdesivir to be tested and mass-produced? How much could they lower CFR?
I think the prospects are good for successful test but I don’t know about scaling up production. I’ve asked this myself in various places and have not gotten any answers.
Why do you think other predictions, such as those given by Metaculus 1, 2, 3 are much less pessimistic?
I don’t have time to go through all those comments to find out where people gave their reasons. If you’ve read them, can you point to some that give the best arguments for their predictions? Then I can compare with my reasons...
Do you think shorting the market is a good idea still?
Yes, if my prediction is right and the market has only priced in a much lower death rate. I’m not as confident about this as I was in my original bet though. ETA: Mainly because of uncertainty about antivirals.
Is the 5-10% global mortality prediction conditional on COVID-19 infecting >10% of the world, or unconditional?
What do you think of the prospects for antivirals like remdesivir to be tested and mass-produced? How much could they lower CFR?
Why do you think other predictions, such as those given by Metaculus 1, 2, 3 are much less pessimistic?
Do you think shorting the market is a good idea still?
If 2.5 to 10% of the world population will indeed die, I cannot possibly see how the stock market would be low right now. A global recession or depression would result and that would be much worse than where it’s at now.
What’s your model for why 2.5-10% of the world dying causes a global recession? It’s plausible to me from the mortality demographics that the risk of death is much higher among older people, and the impact on the workforce will be small, on the order of 0.4% of the workforce for 2.5% of the population. So while it’s a bit morbid to think about, it is not obvious mortality causes a sustained economic downturn.
Widespread panic and quarantine also seems dangerous to the economy. But there was pretty strong panic in Hong Kong during SARS, and the result was a V-shaped recovery: a transient shock, followed by increased economic growth the following year. The current coronavirus will surely last longer and have more psychological weight due to the sheer number of deaths and global nature, but I don’t have a concrete picture of how that leads to a recession.
It’s more or less unconditional at this point, since it’s not clear what could stop the virus from infecting >10% of the world. If you watch the press conferences for the Seattle-area outbreak, the officials in charge are saying it’s unlikely that they can contain it.
I think the prospects are good for successful test but I don’t know about scaling up production. I’ve asked this myself in various places and have not gotten any answers.
I don’t have time to go through all those comments to find out where people gave their reasons. If you’ve read them, can you point to some that give the best arguments for their predictions? Then I can compare with my reasons...
Yes, if my prediction is right and the market has only priced in a much lower death rate. I’m not as confident about this as I was in my original bet though. ETA: Mainly because of uncertainty about antivirals.