Eliezer, did you mean to evoke stock markets with “You could feed it to a display on people’s cellphones”?
Surely financial markets are well-calibrated for events that happen once a month. Then an option that such an event will happen tomorrow is should be about right.
Some claim that there is systematic bias in options against rare events, that on a long shot you do better than even.
Eliezer, did you mean to evoke stock markets with “You could feed it to a display on people’s cellphones”?
Surely financial markets are well-calibrated for events that happen once a month. Then an option that such an event will happen tomorrow is should be about right. Some claim that there is systematic bias in options against rare events, that on a long shot you do better than even.