Imagine that at the beginning of the pandemic, March 2020, you were given the opportunity to buy a place in the queue to get the vaccine. Imagine knowing nothing more than you actually did in March 2020. You don’t know how long it will take to develop a vaccine, or which companies will do it, or exactly how effective it will be, or what if any side effects it will have. You don’t know what kind of pandemic rules will be in place where or for how long. How much would you pay for that place in the vaccine queue? My personal answer, given that I had not much income at the time, is $100, but figure out for yourself what your answer is.
Got a number in mind?
Yes?
Good.
Now lets compare it to what is needed. Operation Warp Speed spent $12.4 billion. A dose of Pfizer/BioNTech costs $19.50, and lets assume conservatively that 300 million doses will be given in the US. That’s $18.25 billion getting spent on vaccines for 150 million people, or $121.67 per person. Was your number above that? Do you think the average number of those 150 million people was above that? I think so. My number specific to March 2020 was only a little below that, and at other times in my life would have been much higher. I’m sure a few particularly well off people would have paid $10k or $100k to be at the very front of the queue. If I’m right that the average amount those 150 million people would pay for a place in a vaccine queue is above $121.67, then crowdfunding vaccine development, with the promise of distributing vaccines in descending order of crowdfunding contribution amount, would have provided at least as good an incentive as the world we actually have.
Why does this matter? If you think the current system will continue to work fine in the future, it doesn’t. But if, like Zvi, you think the Biden administration has just actively destroyed the ability of the current system to develop vaccines in response to future pandemics, then you should care about alternatives. If, like me, you think it was never a good idea for the government to tell N − 1 companies to wait 20 years before they can manufacture life-saving vaccines (this is what a patent is), then you should care about alternatives.
Crowdfunding Vaccine Development
Imagine that at the beginning of the pandemic, March 2020, you were given the opportunity to buy a place in the queue to get the vaccine. Imagine knowing nothing more than you actually did in March 2020. You don’t know how long it will take to develop a vaccine, or which companies will do it, or exactly how effective it will be, or what if any side effects it will have. You don’t know what kind of pandemic rules will be in place where or for how long. How much would you pay for that place in the vaccine queue? My personal answer, given that I had not much income at the time, is $100, but figure out for yourself what your answer is.
Got a number in mind?
Yes?
Good.
Now lets compare it to what is needed. Operation Warp Speed spent $12.4 billion. A dose of Pfizer/BioNTech costs $19.50, and lets assume conservatively that 300 million doses will be given in the US. That’s $18.25 billion getting spent on vaccines for 150 million people, or $121.67 per person. Was your number above that? Do you think the average number of those 150 million people was above that? I think so. My number specific to March 2020 was only a little below that, and at other times in my life would have been much higher. I’m sure a few particularly well off people would have paid $10k or $100k to be at the very front of the queue. If I’m right that the average amount those 150 million people would pay for a place in a vaccine queue is above $121.67, then crowdfunding vaccine development, with the promise of distributing vaccines in descending order of crowdfunding contribution amount, would have provided at least as good an incentive as the world we actually have.
Why does this matter? If you think the current system will continue to work fine in the future, it doesn’t. But if, like Zvi, you think the Biden administration has just actively destroyed the ability of the current system to develop vaccines in response to future pandemics, then you should care about alternatives. If, like me, you think it was never a good idea for the government to tell N − 1 companies to wait 20 years before they can manufacture life-saving vaccines (this is what a patent is), then you should care about alternatives.