Prediction Sources

[lukeprog]

I’d like to become better calibrated via PredictionBook and other tools, but coming up with well-specified predictions can be very time-consuming. It’s handy to be provided with a stock of specific claims to make predictions (or post-dictions) about, as with CFAR’s Credence Game.

Therefore, I asked Jake Miller and Gwern put together a list of prediction sources. Feel free to suggest others!

Prediction Sites

• PredictionBook.com (new) (upcoming)

• DAGGRE

• Bets of Bitcoin (new) (upcoming)

• Inkling (new) (upcoming)

• NITLE (new) (upcoming)

• Foresight Exchange (new: “Sort order: date created”) (upcoming: “Sort order: date due”)

• LongBets (new)

• Intrade (new)

• Hollywood Stock Exchange (upcoming)

• Iowa Electronic Markets

• Betfair

• IARPA forecasting challenge

• the simExchange

• BETDAQ

• Nadex (private; logged-in-only access)

• Saunder School of Business Prediction Markets (opens 2013)

• Predict Wall Street

• Prediction Machine

• iPredict (new) (upcoming)

• SBRodds

• TeamRankings

• Vitibet

• ScoresPro

• Betting Advice

• Soccer Vista

• Lee’s Movie Predictions

• GoldDerby