This is insightful. I also think we should emphasize that it is not just other people or silly theistic, epistemic relativists who don’t read Less Wrong who can get exploded by Philosophical Landmines. These things are epistemically neutral and the best philosophy in the world can still become slogans if it gets discussed too much E.g.
Of course I’d learned some great replies to that sort of question right here on LW, so I did my best to sort her out,
Now I wasn’t there and I don’t know you. But it seems at least plausible that that is exactly what your sister felt she was doing. That this is how having your philosophical limbs getting blown off feels like from the inside.
I think I see this phenomena most with activist-atheists who show up everywhere prepared to categorize any argument a theist might make and then give a stock response to it. It’s related to arguments as soldiers. In addition to avoiding and disarming landmines, I think there is a lot to be said for trying to develop an immunity. So that even if other people start tossing out slogans you don’t. I propose that it is good policy to provisionally accept your opponent’s claims and then let your own arguments do their work on those claims in your mind before you let them out.
So...
Theist: “The universe is too complex for it to have been created randomly.”
Atheist (pattern matches this claim to one she has heard a hundred times before, searches for the most relevant reply, outputs): “Natural selection isn’t random and in that case how was God created?”
KABOOM!
Instead:
Theist: “The universe is too complex for it to have been created randomly.”
Atheist (Entertains the argument as if she had no prior experience with it, see’s what makes the argument persuasive for some people, then searches for replies and applies them to the argument “Is natural selection really random? Oh, and God, to the extent He is supposed to be like a human agent, would be really complicated too. So that just pushes the problem of developing complexity back a step.”): “Oh yeah, I’ve heard things like that before. Here are two issues with it....”
Obviously this is hard to do, and maybe not worthwhile in every situation.
YES. The most effective general tactic in religious debates is to find out what exactly the other guy is trying to say, and direct your questions at revealing what you suspect are weak points in the argument. Most of this stuff has a tendency to collapse on its own if you poke it hard enough—and nobody will be able to accuse you of making strawman arguments, or not listening.
The most effective general tactic in religious debates is to find out what exactly the other guy is trying to say, and direct your questions at revealing what you suspect are weak points in the argument.
Of course that goes for all debates, not just religious ones.
I don’t understand how the Atheist gets from the Theist’s claims about the creation of the universe to “natural selection”. I thought that was the bad pattern-matching in the first example, but then they make the same mistake in the second example. Does the Atheist think the universe is an evolved creature?
The atheist doesn’t think the universe evolved; he thinks the complex things in the universe evolved. The theist I was modeling is thinking of -say- the human eyeball when he thinks about the complexity of the universe. But I agree the shorthand dialogue is ambiguous.
Some complex things in the universe evolved. But plenty didn’t. The ‘fine-tuning’ of physical constants arguments is quite fashionable at the moment.
Is interesting how easy it is to project a certain assumption onto arguments, though. Because your atheist response assumed natural selection, while a response above protests that the theist hasn’t experienced enough universes to generalise about them, so presumably interprets the statement to refer to the universe as a whole. All the more reason to make sure you understand what people mean, I suppose!
Now I wasn’t there and I don’t know you. But it seems at least plausible that that is exactly what your sister felt she was doing. That this is how having your philosophical limbs getting blown off feels like from the inside.
Yep. Fixed that to be more clear.
Also added an addendum reflecting your first point (not just irrationalists).
Unless there are on order of $2^KolmogorovComplexity(Universe)$ universes, the chance of it being constructed randomly is exceedingly low.
An extremely low probability of the observation under some theory is not itself evidence. It’s extremely unlikely that the I would randomly come up with the number 0.0135814709894468, and yet I did.
It’s only interesting if there is some other possibility that assigns a different probability to that outcome.
I can’t assign any remarkable property to the number you came up with, not even the fact that I came up with it myself earlier (I didn’t). So of course I’m not surprised that you came up with it.
Our universe, on the other hand, supports sentient life. That’s quite a remarkable property, which presumably spans only a tiny fraction of all “possible universes” (whatever that means). Then, under the assumption our universe is the only one, and was created randomly, then we’re incredibly lucky to exist at all. So, there is a good deal of improbability to explain. And God just sounds perfect.
Worse, I actually think God is a pretty good explanation until you know about evolution. And Newton, to hint at the universality of simple laws of physics. And probably more, since we still don’t know for instance how intelligence and conciousness actually work —though we do have strong hints. And multiverses, and anthropic reasoning and…
Alas, those are long-winded arguments. I think the outside view is more accessible: technology accomplishes more and more impressive miracles, and it doesn’t run on God (it’s all about mechanisms, not phlebotinum). But I don’t feel this is the strongest argument, and I wouldn’t try to present it as knock down.
Now, if I actually argue with a theist, I won’t start by those. First, I’ll try to agree on something. Most likely, non-contradiction and excluded middle. Either there is a God, or there is none, and either way, one of us is mistaken. If we can’t agree with even that (happens with some agnostics), I just give up. (No, wait, I don’t.)
Make sure everyone accept the non-contradiction principle and mark the ones that don’t as “beyond therapy” (or patiently explain that “truth” business to them).
Make sure everyone use the same definitions for the subject at hand.
My limited experience tells me that most theists will readily accept point one, believing that there is a God, and I’m mistaken to believe otherwise. I praise them for their coherence, then move on to what we actually mean by “God” and such.
EDIT: I may need to be more explicit: I think the non-contradiction principle is more fundamental than the possible existence of a God, and as such should be settled first. Settling the definition for any particular question always come second. It only seems to come first in most discussions because the non-contradiction principle is generally common knowledge.
Also, I do accept there is a good chance the theist and I do not put the same meanings under the same words. It’s just simpler to assume we do when using them as an example for discussing non-contradiction: we don’t need to use the actual meanings yet. (Well, with one exception: I assume “there is a God” and “there is no God” are mutually contradictory for any reasonable meaning we could possibly put behind those words.)
Probable, given the background information at the time.
Before Darwin, remember that the only known powerful optimizations processes where sentient beings. Clearly, Nature is the result of an optimization process (it’s not random by a long shot), and a very very powerful one. It’s only natural to think it is sentient as well.
That is, until Darwin showed how a mindless process, very simple at it’s core, can do the work.
I’ve come across this arguments before—I think Dawkins makes it. It shows a certain level of civilised recognition of how you might have another view. But I think there’s also a risk that because we do have Darwin, we’re quick to just accept that he’s the reason why Creation isn’t a good explanation. I actually think Hume deconstructed the argument very well in his Dialogue Concerning Natural Religion.
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions
1) what sort of God (Hume suggests a coalition of Gods, warring Gods, a young or old and senile God as possibilities)
2) what other things seem to often lead to complexity (the universe as an organism, essentially)
3) the potential of sheer magnitude of space and time to allow pockets of apparent order to arise
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions
Whose answers tend to just be “Poof Magic”. While I do have a problem with “Poof Magic”, I can’t explain it away without quite deep scientific arguments. And “Poof Magic”, while unsatisfactory to any properly curious mind, have no complexity problem.
Now that I think of it, I may have to qualify the argument I made above. I didn’t know about Hume, so maybe the God Hypothesis wasn’t so good even before Newton and Darwin after all. At least assuming the background knowledge available to the best thinkers of the time.
The laypeople, however, may not have had a choice but to believe in some God. I mean, I doubt there was some simple argument they could understand (and believe) at the time. Now, with the miracles of technology, I think it’s much easier.
This is insightful. I also think we should emphasize that it is not just other people or silly theistic, epistemic relativists who don’t read Less Wrong who can get exploded by Philosophical Landmines. These things are epistemically neutral and the best philosophy in the world can still become slogans if it gets discussed too much E.g.
Now I wasn’t there and I don’t know you. But it seems at least plausible that that is exactly what your sister felt she was doing. That this is how having your philosophical limbs getting blown off feels like from the inside.
I think I see this phenomena most with activist-atheists who show up everywhere prepared to categorize any argument a theist might make and then give a stock response to it. It’s related to arguments as soldiers. In addition to avoiding and disarming landmines, I think there is a lot to be said for trying to develop an immunity. So that even if other people start tossing out slogans you don’t. I propose that it is good policy to provisionally accept your opponent’s claims and then let your own arguments do their work on those claims in your mind before you let them out.
So...
Theist: “The universe is too complex for it to have been created randomly.”
Atheist (pattern matches this claim to one she has heard a hundred times before, searches for the most relevant reply, outputs): “Natural selection isn’t random and in that case how was God created?”
KABOOM!
Instead:
Theist: “The universe is too complex for it to have been created randomly.”
Atheist (Entertains the argument as if she had no prior experience with it, see’s what makes the argument persuasive for some people, then searches for replies and applies them to the argument “Is natural selection really random? Oh, and God, to the extent He is supposed to be like a human agent, would be really complicated too. So that just pushes the problem of developing complexity back a step.”): “Oh yeah, I’ve heard things like that before. Here are two issues with it....”
Obviously this is hard to do, and maybe not worthwhile in every situation.
“Hmm … what do you mean by ‘randomly’?”
YES. The most effective general tactic in religious debates is to find out what exactly the other guy is trying to say, and direct your questions at revealing what you suspect are weak points in the argument. Most of this stuff has a tendency to collapse on its own if you poke it hard enough—and nobody will be able to accuse you of making strawman arguments, or not listening.
Of course that goes for all debates, not just religious ones.
That one makes me crazy. How can anyone think they know enough about universes to make a strong claim about what sorts of universes are likely?
I don’t understand how the Atheist gets from the Theist’s claims about the creation of the universe to “natural selection”. I thought that was the bad pattern-matching in the first example, but then they make the same mistake in the second example. Does the Atheist think the universe is an evolved creature?
The atheist doesn’t think the universe evolved; he thinks the complex things in the universe evolved. The theist I was modeling is thinking of -say- the human eyeball when he thinks about the complexity of the universe. But I agree the shorthand dialogue is ambiguous.
Some complex things in the universe evolved. But plenty didn’t. The ‘fine-tuning’ of physical constants arguments is quite fashionable at the moment.
Is interesting how easy it is to project a certain assumption onto arguments, though. Because your atheist response assumed natural selection, while a response above protests that the theist hasn’t experienced enough universes to generalise about them, so presumably interprets the statement to refer to the universe as a whole. All the more reason to make sure you understand what people mean, I suppose!
Yep. Fixed that to be more clear.
Also added an addendum reflecting your first point (not just irrationalists).
You’re right. Exactly.
Unless there are on order of $2^KolmogorovComplexity(Universe)$ universes, the chance of it being constructed randomly is exceedingly low.
Please, do continue.
An extremely low probability of the observation under some theory is not itself evidence. It’s extremely unlikely that the I would randomly come up with the number 0.0135814709894468, and yet I did.
It’s only interesting if there is some other possibility that assigns a different probability to that outcome.
I can’t assign any remarkable property to the number you came up with, not even the fact that I came up with it myself earlier (I didn’t). So of course I’m not surprised that you came up with it.
Our universe, on the other hand, supports sentient life. That’s quite a remarkable property, which presumably spans only a tiny fraction of all “possible universes” (whatever that means). Then, under the assumption our universe is the only one, and was created randomly, then we’re incredibly lucky to exist at all. So, there is a good deal of improbability to explain. And God just sounds perfect.
Worse, I actually think God is a pretty good explanation until you know about evolution. And Newton, to hint at the universality of simple laws of physics. And probably more, since we still don’t know for instance how intelligence and conciousness actually work —though we do have strong hints. And multiverses, and anthropic reasoning and…
Alas, those are long-winded arguments. I think the outside view is more accessible: technology accomplishes more and more impressive miracles, and it doesn’t run on God (it’s all about mechanisms, not phlebotinum). But I don’t feel this is the strongest argument, and I wouldn’t try to present it as knock down.
Now, if I actually argue with a theist, I won’t start by those. First, I’ll try to agree on something. Most likely, non-contradiction and excluded middle. Either there is a God, or there is none, and either way, one of us is mistaken. If we can’t agree with even that (happens with some agnostics), I just give up. (No, wait, I don’t.)
Or the two of you mean different things by “a God”, or even by “there is”.
First things first.
Make sure everyone accept the non-contradiction principle and mark the ones that don’t as “beyond therapy” (or patiently explain that “truth” business to them).
Make sure everyone use the same definitions for the subject at hand.
My limited experience tells me that most theists will readily accept point one, believing that there is a God, and I’m mistaken to believe otherwise. I praise them for their coherence, then move on to what we actually mean by “God” and such.
EDIT: I may need to be more explicit: I think the non-contradiction principle is more fundamental than the possible existence of a God, and as such should be settled first. Settling the definition for any particular question always come second. It only seems to come first in most discussions because the non-contradiction principle is generally common knowledge.
Also, I do accept there is a good chance the theist and I do not put the same meanings under the same words. It’s just simpler to assume we do when using them as an example for discussing non-contradiction: we don’t need to use the actual meanings yet. (Well, with one exception: I assume “there is a God” and “there is no God” are mutually contradictory for any reasonable meaning we could possibly put behind those words.)
What exactly do you mean by “good explanation”?
Probable, given the background information at the time.
Before Darwin, remember that the only known powerful optimizations processes where sentient beings. Clearly, Nature is the result of an optimization process (it’s not random by a long shot), and a very very powerful one. It’s only natural to think it is sentient as well.
That is, until Darwin showed how a mindless process, very simple at it’s core, can do the work.
I’ve come across this arguments before—I think Dawkins makes it. It shows a certain level of civilised recognition of how you might have another view. But I think there’s also a risk that because we do have Darwin, we’re quick to just accept that he’s the reason why Creation isn’t a good explanation. I actually think Hume deconstructed the argument very well in his Dialogue Concerning Natural Religion.
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions 1) what sort of God (Hume suggests a coalition of Gods, warring Gods, a young or old and senile God as possibilities) 2) what other things seem to often lead to complexity (the universe as an organism, essentially) 3) the potential of sheer magnitude of space and time to allow pockets of apparent order to arise
Whose answers tend to just be “Poof Magic”. While I do have a problem with “Poof Magic”, I can’t explain it away without quite deep scientific arguments. And “Poof Magic”, while unsatisfactory to any properly curious mind, have no complexity problem.
Now that I think of it, I may have to qualify the argument I made above. I didn’t know about Hume, so maybe the God Hypothesis wasn’t so good even before Newton and Darwin after all. At least assuming the background knowledge available to the best thinkers of the time.
The laypeople, however, may not have had a choice but to believe in some God. I mean, I doubt there was some simple argument they could understand (and believe) at the time. Now, with the miracles of technology, I think it’s much easier.