We should not think about AI as about omnipotent God—if it was, he could travel even faster then light and even back in time. But we dont see it around us (if we are not in simulation). So he is not omnipotent. So we should assume that nanobots wave is slower then speed of light. Lets give it 0.8 light speed. The main problem with nanobots wave is to slow down after it reachs its destination. We could accelerate nenobots in accelrators, but slowing down could be complicated.
So, if nanobots speed is 0.8c, then volume of a sphere which they could get is only 0.512 of that of the SETI attack. That meens that SETI attack is 2 times more effective as a way to conqure the space.
Also observer selection is working here. All civilizations inside nanobots wave are probably destroyed. So we could only find ourselves outside it.
As gwern pointed out SETI attacks only target worlds with tech-savvy intelligent life (we so far know about one of those) while a von-neuman probe can likely target pretty much all systems we’ve observed so far (and we’ve observed a bit more than one).
A SETI attack being twice as effective as a von-neumann probe is quite the overstatement. (even discounting the fact that the probes might be able to travel at a speed much closer to c)
SETI attack could happen in any medium where only information transfer is possible.
If in the future we could contact parallel worlds it would be again the case.
As we now dont know exact limitation of interstellar travel, we may think that SETI attack could happened.
Or we should conclude that any serch of alien radiosignals is useless as they should approach us in a speed of light phisically.
And again we could exist only in those regions of the Universe which is not conqured by alien nanobot. Or they are conqured but lay dormant somethere, and in this case SETI attack still possible.
And again we could exist only in those regions of the Universe which is not conqured by alien nanobot. Or they are conqured but lay dormant somethere, and in this case SETI attack still possible.
It seems a bit like you’re grasping at straws to keep the SETI threat viable. I realize you’re attached to it, I saw the website. Still, allow yourself to follow the arguments whereever they may lead.
I know that nano von Neuman probs is strongest argument against the theory and I knew it even before I published it here. Moreover, i have shorter article about possible alien nanobots in Solar system which I will eventually publish here—if it is not to much offtopic.
But from epistemic point of view we cant close one unknown case with another big unknown with 100 percent certanity.
Any way it will not change conclusion: SETI serch is or usless or dangerous, and should be stopped.
There’s nothing this ragtag horde of competing special interests (humanity) needs more than the uniting force of “we received signals from other civilizations”. To unite us and to usher in a new era of a redefined in-group (“us”) versus the new out-group (“them”—the aliens).
As the old adage goes, me against my brother, my brother and I against our cousins, my cousins and I against strangers.
What we need is a “all of humanity versus some unspecified aliens” to save us. Even if we have to make them up ourselves; there should be an astrophysicists’ conspiracy to fake such signals. I imagine something like “Ok Earth-guys, whoever gets to Epsilon Eridani first owns it! Also, we demand a new season of Firefly.” (This would be troublesome, because it would mean they are very close already.)
Against someone with an AI, are we really tech-savvy? Is the Carnot engine turning chemical energy into rotary mechanical energy into electromagnetic energy really the best way to listen for radio signals?
We should not think about AI as about omnipotent God—if it was, he could travel even faster then light and even back in time. But we dont see it around us (if we are not in simulation). So he is not omnipotent. So we should assume that nanobots wave is slower then speed of light. Lets give it 0.8 light speed. The main problem with nanobots wave is to slow down after it reachs its destination. We could accelerate nenobots in accelrators, but slowing down could be complicated. So, if nanobots speed is 0.8c, then volume of a sphere which they could get is only 0.512 of that of the SETI attack. That meens that SETI attack is 2 times more effective as a way to conqure the space. Also observer selection is working here. All civilizations inside nanobots wave are probably destroyed. So we could only find ourselves outside it.
As gwern pointed out SETI attacks only target worlds with tech-savvy intelligent life (we so far know about one of those) while a von-neuman probe can likely target pretty much all systems we’ve observed so far (and we’ve observed a bit more than one).
A SETI attack being twice as effective as a von-neumann probe is quite the overstatement. (even discounting the fact that the probes might be able to travel at a speed much closer to c)
SETI attack could happen in any medium where only information transfer is possible. If in the future we could contact parallel worlds it would be again the case. As we now dont know exact limitation of interstellar travel, we may think that SETI attack could happened. Or we should conclude that any serch of alien radiosignals is useless as they should approach us in a speed of light phisically.
And again we could exist only in those regions of the Universe which is not conqured by alien nanobot. Or they are conqured but lay dormant somethere, and in this case SETI attack still possible.
It seems a bit like you’re grasping at straws to keep the SETI threat viable. I realize you’re attached to it, I saw the website. Still, allow yourself to follow the arguments whereever they may lead.
I know that nano von Neuman probs is strongest argument against the theory and I knew it even before I published it here. Moreover, i have shorter article about possible alien nanobots in Solar system which I will eventually publish here—if it is not to much offtopic.
But from epistemic point of view we cant close one unknown case with another big unknown with 100 percent certanity.
Any way it will not change conclusion: SETI serch is or usless or dangerous, and should be stopped.
Useless? I don’t think so.
There’s nothing this ragtag horde of competing special interests (humanity) needs more than the uniting force of “we received signals from other civilizations”. To unite us and to usher in a new era of a redefined in-group (“us”) versus the new out-group (“them”—the aliens).
As the old adage goes, me against my brother, my brother and I against our cousins, my cousins and I against strangers.
What we need is a “all of humanity versus some unspecified aliens” to save us. Even if we have to make them up ourselves; there should be an astrophysicists’ conspiracy to fake such signals. I imagine something like “Ok Earth-guys, whoever gets to Epsilon Eridani first owns it! Also, we demand a new season of Firefly.” (This would be troublesome, because it would mean they are very close already.)
[Obligatory Watchmen reference]
That’s not exactly how I remember the movie, but it was still entertaining. I liked that big guy. Klaatu barada nikto!
. . .
(Sorry, just stirring the pot.)
Vg jnf gung jnl va gur pbzvp obbx; Bmlznaqvnf unq n grnz bs fpvragvfgf ovb-ratvarre n uhtr cflpuvp fdhvq gung jbhyq qvr hcba ovegu/npgvingvba naq xvyy n ybg bs crbcyr jvgu vgf cflpuvp “fpernz”. Vg’q znc avpryl gb crbcyr’f rkcrpgngvbaf bs na “nyvra vainqre” naq uhznavgl jbhyq havgr ntnvafg cbgragvny shegure gerngf.
Against someone with an AI, are we really tech-savvy? Is the Carnot engine turning chemical energy into rotary mechanical energy into electromagnetic energy really the best way to listen for radio signals?
You missed the point.