Of course it muddies things and we should not be interested in small deviations. That’s the basic point of your argument.
?!
The point I was making in the first 550 words of the grandparent comment is that one shouldn’t automatically disregard a small deviation from flatness merely because it’s (barely) statistically insignificant. I am not sure how you interpreted it to mean that ‘we should not be interested in small deviations.’
Well can you give me an example of a statement about temperature in the last 10 years which is not an “interpretation”?
A statement that’s a few written words or sentences? I doubt it. Trying to summarize a complicated time series in a few words is inevitably going to mean not mentioning some features of the time series, and your editorial judgment of which features not to mention means you’re interpreting it.
So what?
You should know, you asked me ‘Why not?’ in the first place.
In 1998, would it have been wrong to say that global surface temperatures had risen (relatively) rapidly over the previous few years?
Practically, yes, because that claim carries the implication that the El Niño spike is representative of the warming ‘over the previous few years.’
?!
The point I was making in the first 550 words of the grandparent comment is that one shouldn’t automatically disregard a small deviation from flatness merely because it’s (barely) statistically insignificant. I am not sure how you interpreted it to mean that ‘we should not be interested in small deviations.’
A statement that’s a few written words or sentences? I doubt it. Trying to summarize a complicated time series in a few words is inevitably going to mean not mentioning some features of the time series, and your editorial judgment of which features not to mention means you’re interpreting it.
You should know, you asked me ‘Why not?’ in the first place.
Practically, yes, because that claim carries the implication that the El Niño spike is representative of the warming ‘over the previous few years.’