The Metaculus crowd thinks that it’s very likely that Russia will restrict emigration:
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely that the aviation industry will collapse or shrink due to sanctions.
PSA: if you are in Russia, probably move out ASAP
The Metaculus crowd thinks that it’s very likely that Russia will restrict emigration:
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely that the aviation industry will collapse or shrink due to sanctions.
Related forecasts:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9918/martial-law-in-russia-before-april-2022/
- https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-martial-law-be-declared-in-rus