I think that’s the deadly bagel fallacy. Or at least close enough that I get to link the video.
(To belabor the point: A 98% probability doesn’t mean that 2% of the people are the destined winners, it can represent uncertainty about things that have nothing to do with the person running, like their opponent’s mistakes or whether we’re at war.)
Yeah, good point. I should have asked “how many people are there who would have a >40% chance of winning if they were selected.” Seems like David’s answer would be about 5% (so, a few million) given the breakdown given above.
I think that’s the deadly bagel fallacy. Or at least close enough that I get to link the video.
(To belabor the point: A 98% probability doesn’t mean that 2% of the people are the destined winners, it can represent uncertainty about things that have nothing to do with the person running, like their opponent’s mistakes or whether we’re at war.)
Yeah, good point. I should have asked “how many people are there who would have a >40% chance of winning if they were selected.” Seems like David’s answer would be about 5% (so, a few million) given the breakdown given above.
That’s what you’re after, right?
Yes, exactly. That’s why I said “millions.”