Good Points, Everything is a conditional probability, so you can simply make conditional normal predictions:
Let A = Biden alive
Let B = Biden vote share
Pr(A)=Bernoulli(0.97)
p(B∣A)=N(0.54,0.03)
Then the normal probability is conditional on him being alive and does not count otherwise :)
Another solution is to make predictions from a T-distribution to get fatter tails. and then use “Advanced trick 3” to transform it back to a normal when calculating your calibration.
Good Points, Everything is a conditional probability, so you can simply make conditional normal predictions:
Let A = Biden alive
Let B = Biden vote share
Pr(A)=Bernoulli(0.97)
p(B∣A)=N(0.54,0.03)
Then the normal probability is conditional on him being alive and does not count otherwise :)
Another solution is to make predictions from a T-distribution to get fatter tails. and then use “Advanced trick 3” to transform it back to a normal when calculating your calibration.