I’m trying to think of a causal goodheart one. A bad one I came up with is that if someone thinks the reason taller people get better careers is because the hiring committe likes tall people, and so the person wears heels in their shoes, then this is a causal godheart because they’re trying to win on a proxy but in a way causally unrelated to the goal of having a good career.
But everyone knows the true causal story and don’t make this mistake, so it’s not a good example. Is there a causal story people don’t know about? Like perhaps some false belief about winning streaks (as opposed to the standard Kahneman story of regression to the mean).
I’m trying to think of a causal goodheart one. A bad one I came up with is that if someone thinks the reason taller people get better careers is because the hiring committe likes tall people, and so the person wears heels in their shoes, then this is a causal godheart because they’re trying to win on a proxy but in a way causally unrelated to the goal of having a good career.
But everyone knows the true causal story and don’t make this mistake, so it’s not a good example. Is there a causal story people don’t know about? Like perhaps some false belief about winning streaks (as opposed to the standard Kahneman story of regression to the mean).