I’ve seen a lot of people on LW use tools like Predictionbook or Fatebook for tracking personal predictions in their daily life. However, I wasn’t able to find any information on specific reasons to do that. Fatebook lists a few vague points on its about page, but they aren’t really elaborated on.
Is personal prediction tracking just a more interesting version of a calibration test? So you just track your predictions about your life and then look at the calibration graph to check if you’re over- or underconfident? Or are there any other benefits?
The aforementioned Fatebook page lists “make better decisions” and “communicate more clearly”. I can see how phrasing your beliefs as probabilities instead of “yes/no” questions could help with that—but how does prediction tracking in particular help with it?
[Question] What value does personal prediction tracking have?
I’ve seen a lot of people on LW use tools like Predictionbook or Fatebook for tracking personal predictions in their daily life. However, I wasn’t able to find any information on specific reasons to do that. Fatebook lists a few vague points on its about page, but they aren’t really elaborated on.
Is personal prediction tracking just a more interesting version of a calibration test? So you just track your predictions about your life and then look at the calibration graph to check if you’re over- or underconfident? Or are there any other benefits?
The aforementioned Fatebook page lists “make better decisions” and “communicate more clearly”. I can see how phrasing your beliefs as probabilities instead of “yes/no” questions could help with that—but how does prediction tracking in particular help with it?