21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 20%
I don’t know about the situation at Google but assuming they currently still do this I think it’s more likely than this that they keep doing it. If this is a blind prediction and Scott knows nothing I don’t know, I’d buy to 30%.
I have some inside information on this as an ex-Alphabet employee; I have a strong impression that execs do not want to do this. Employees were clamoring for a policy statement on this for months and they hemmed, hawed, dodged the question, delayed for months, and ultimately refused.
New strains could delay things more, but I would be surprised if they don’t ultimately make people go back to the office as soon as they reasonably can. Presence in Mountain View or occasionally other offices is one of the few places where employees really want something and Alphabet execs, historically, have drawn a fairly hard line that they can’t have it.
Easy money. If this were a month ago I wouldn’t be quite as sure, but Google has outright said they will not do this: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/google-speeds-partial-office-reopening-and-puts-limits-on-remote-work.html
Not easy money because there’s no way to bet. Scott presumably didn’t know, but that doesn’t make this 0%. I’d still be at 5% here.
On reflection I decided I’m still at 10%, because a new strain might disrupt things and force Google to delay that policy.
[Mods: I’ve edited the original for this and for the Vitamin D question, please re-input.]
Welp. I lose points on this one https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/google-relaxes-work-from-home-rules-to-let-more-staff-be-remote
Wasn’t expecting them to bend but it seems they are after all.
Fair. I was also debating between 5-10%.
I have some inside information on this as an ex-Alphabet employee; I have a strong impression that execs do not want to do this. Employees were clamoring for a policy statement on this for months and they hemmed, hawed, dodged the question, delayed for months, and ultimately refused.
New strains could delay things more, but I would be surprised if they don’t ultimately make people go back to the office as soon as they reasonably can. Presence in Mountain View or occasionally other offices is one of the few places where employees really want something and Alphabet execs, historically, have drawn a fairly hard line that they can’t have it.