People aren’t betting with you because the utility of money is not linear.
If you own $150,000 it is very unlikely that $1000 makes any difference to your life whatsoever. But losing $150,000 might ruin it.
Here is a way around that problem: You both wager $1000 (or whatever you like). When the bet is resolved you throw the dice (or rather use a random number generator).
If you win you throw the 99.33% probability “you get paid”-dice.
If your opponent wins he throws the 0.66% probability “he gets paid”-dice.
(If the [0,100] random number is <0.66 your opponent gets $1000 if he wins. If the random number is between 0.66 and 100 you will get $1000 if you win. In the other combinations you both keep your money.)
So instead of wagering a larger amount of money your opponent wagers a larger probability of having to pay in the event of losing the bet.
PS: Yes, you can also just wager small amounts of money but that’s kinda boring.
People aren’t betting with you because the utility of money is not linear.
If you own $150,000 it is very unlikely that $1000 makes any difference to your life whatsoever. But losing $150,000 might ruin it.
Here is a way around that problem: You both wager $1000 (or whatever you like). When the bet is resolved you throw the dice (or rather use a random number generator).
If you win you throw the 99.33% probability “you get paid”-dice.
If your opponent wins he throws the 0.66% probability “he gets paid”-dice.
(If the [0,100] random number is <0.66 your opponent gets $1000 if he wins. If the random number is between 0.66 and 100 you will get $1000 if you win. In the other combinations you both keep your money.)
So instead of wagering a larger amount of money your opponent wagers a larger probability of having to pay in the event of losing the bet.
PS: Yes, you can also just wager small amounts of money but that’s kinda boring.
Offering money up front reduces issues with the bet proposer’s credibility as a counterparty. With your proposed scheme, that becomes an issue.
You could still offer money up front. Getting $2000 if the stars align is still much more likely than getting $150,000.