When you say “true probability”, what do you mean?
The current hypotheses I have about what you mean are (in part non-exclusive):
You think some notion of objective, non-observer dependent probability makes sense, and that’s the true probability.
You do not think “true probability” exists, you are referencing to it to say the market price is not anything like that.
You define “true probability” a probability that observers contextually agree on (like a coin flip observed by humans who don’t know the thrower).
When you say “true probability”, what do you mean?
The current hypotheses I have about what you mean are (in part non-exclusive):
You think some notion of objective, non-observer dependent probability makes sense, and that’s the true probability.
You do not think “true probability” exists, you are referencing to it to say the market price is not anything like that.
You define “true probability” a probability that observers contextually agree on (like a coin flip observed by humans who don’t know the thrower).