Prior or posterior to the evidence provided by the other person’s willingness to offer the bet? ;-)
rather modest assumptions
Such as assuming that that person would also decline the bet even if they had 10 times as much money to start with? That doesn’t sound like a particularly modest assumption.
Some of those conclusions are not as absurd as Rabin appears to believe; I think he’s typical-minding. Most people will pick a 100% chance of $500 over a 15% chance of $1M.
Prior or posterior to the evidence provided by the other person’s willingness to offer the bet? ;-)
Such as assuming that that person would also decline the bet even if they had 10 times as much money to start with? That doesn’t sound like a particularly modest assumption.