Even if the big box is empty and you one-box anyway, the predictor can just say “Yes, but if the big box had been full, you would have two-boxed.” and it’s unclear whether the predictor is accurate or not since you weren’t in that situation.
and it’s unclear whether the predictor is accurate or not since you weren’t in that situation
The predictor acts based on your behavior in both hypotheticals, and from either of the hypotheticals you don’t get to observe your own decision in the other, to verify that it was taken into account correctly.
If the big box is full and you one-box, the predictor can say “Yes, and if the big box had been empty, you would have also one-boxed.” And it’s unclear whether the predictor is accurate or not since you weren’t in that situation. Being wrong in your favor is also a possibility.
You don’t get to verify that your decision was taken into account correctly anyway. If the big box is full and you two-box, the predictor can say “Yes, so you are currently in a hypothetical, in reality the big box is empty.”
Even if the big box is empty and you one-box anyway, the predictor can just say “Yes, but if the big box had been full, you would have two-boxed.” and it’s unclear whether the predictor is accurate or not since you weren’t in that situation.
The predictor acts based on your behavior in both hypotheticals, and from either of the hypotheticals you don’t get to observe your own decision in the other, to verify that it was taken into account correctly.
If the big box is full and you one-box, the predictor can say “Yes, and if the big box had been empty, you would have also one-boxed.” And it’s unclear whether the predictor is accurate or not since you weren’t in that situation. Being wrong in your favor is also a possibility.
You don’t get to verify that your decision was taken into account correctly anyway. If the big box is full and you two-box, the predictor can say “Yes, so you are currently in a hypothetical, in reality the big box is empty.”