The point is not to prevent every single suicide, just reduce its rate. Since nobody is doing anything at the moment, it’s pretty reasonable to assume modest effort could have major impact. By comparison we’re throwing tons of money on cancer without much success, so throwing more money and effort at it probably won’t change much at this point.
Or maybe if you care about reduction of the risk of your death (and risk of your death by suicide), your expected suicide rate is already extremely low.
But the reference class is not the people who said they are unlikely to die by suicide, it’s the people who want to reduce their risk of death, by means such as taking driving exams. I’d say strong self preservation prevents suicide.
Do we actually have any statistical basis whatsoever to infer that?
For obvious counterpoint, if depressive realism hypothesis is true, people who are most likely aware of risks are also most likely to be depressed, and most likely to commit suicide at some point in the future. (I have no idea how strong effect this way is).
I’m just suggesting that because the suicides are major risk, doesn’t mean that survivalists can do a lot about that risk. Besides, if one is to trust own reasoning in the future one shouldn’t try to prevent suicide.
Besides, if one is to trust own reasoning in the future one shouldn’t try to prevent suicide.
Not so, when I was speculating on all the most effective actions for preventing their own suicide almost none of them were about simply preventing the implementation of a suicide preference. Most involved improving your life in such a way that suicide is not desirable. This allows for trust in your own reasoning. (Enter Buffy, “Give me something to sing about!”).
Besides, if one is to trust own reasoning in the future
… then one is horribly wrong already. People make wrong decisions all the time for variety of reasons. People do not have utility functions or anything remotely like that. (see Alicorn’s Luminosity for entertaining fictional evidence of that, Gianna’s transformation in particular)
How do you do about protecting the altered yourself from altered yourself, in the future, though? I sure would try to prevent myself going depressed, and i’d try to keep my cognition working correctly, but that’s about it. It is already partial death if you changed too much.
edit: btw i live in the country with #1 suicide rate in the world (lithuania). I knew some guy who was suicidal (edit: he actually ended up in hospital at some occasion, idk if he’s still alive even), he was outright weird in general, e.g. cutting himself to show some ultra bitchy gf that he loves her. Single anekdote, I know, but that’s how many of the suicides are.
btw i live in the country with #1 suicide rate in the world (lithuania).
This suggests an easy way to drastically reduce your risk—just move somewhere else. EU is all open to you (and even in the middle of economic crisis, most of EU is not as badly affected as Lithuania).
I sure would try to prevent myself going depressed
That’s one obvious thing to do. Due to criminally negligent lack of research I cannot really say much more.
I’m going to for other reasons, though, honestly, I think its very much cultural and maybe heritable, and I’m not Lithuanian.
Other issue is anti-depressants, they were found to raise risk of suicide. (which also makes dubious their efficacy at anything; the suicide rate is the only objective measure of depression that is not co-measuring the whining, and it’s not improved by anti-depressants. Suggesting that the anti-depressants are an “anti-whining medication”)
I’m not an expert in depression or suicide or Lithuania. If you’re high risk for any reason (like living in Lithuania), it would probably be a good use of your time to take a look at research.
(see the wide 95% ci). Such findings were reported by media—thanks the advertisment money from manufacturers—as the connection having been disproved. It’s a multi billion dollar subject. Mankind is bad at processing multi billion dollar subjects.
This suggests an easy way to drastically reduce your risk—just move somewhere else. EU is all open to you (and even in the middle of economic crisis, most of EU is not as badly affected as Lithuania).
It is not a disease in itself, so on first look living between people who do suicide a lot is not a problem. There might be a common factor in the environment that leads to it. Look into vitamin deficiencies, and social factors, like the way people relate to each other, availability of closeness and company etc.
There also is a copycat effect after reports on suicides. Studies indicated that just the reporting leads to a higher rate. Not just earlier suicides of people who where about to anyway, but actually more.
Best case I am aware of is the German series: death of a pupil. Each time it was showed on TV suicides went up notably. Responsible media therefore does not report much about suicides.
This suggests an easy way to drastically reduce your risk—just move somewhere else.
That sounds like the EDT answer to the Smoking Lesion Problem. (Especially now that he said he’s not Lithuanian himself, though you couldn’t know that when you wrote your comment.)
Well, the place is rather depressing to top everything of, i’d have to say. I’m probably going to move out sometime late this year actually, not because of suicide risks, but possibly because of the stuff that may be making people here suicidal. I have some immigration issues, actually—I moved out of some other place to the east of Lithuania, and while i do reside here legally, i don’t have free movement within EU (in theory) yet.
Regarding the risk levels, the correlation between being in Lithuania and being suicidal is still fairly weak evidence for me being suicidal.
Weird fact: Lithuania and South Korea are #1 and #2 in both the suicide rates and internet speeds.
Weird fact: Lithuania and South Korea are #1 and #2 in both the suicide rates and internet speeds.
Which provides a counterexample to the idea I had in the back of my mind, that scarcity of sunshine in winter had something to do with the high suicide rates in northern Europe: they’ve got plenty of sunshine all year round in South Korea. (Of course, generalizations from two example have got to be pretty meaningless.)
(Am I the only one who’s bothered by the x axis in Fig. 1.1 not being logarithmic? It makes no sense for (say) Switzerland to be horizontally further away from New Zealand than (say) New Zealand is from India!)
The point is not to prevent every single suicide, just reduce its rate. Since nobody is doing anything at the moment, it’s pretty reasonable to assume modest effort could have major impact. By comparison we’re throwing tons of money on cancer without much success, so throwing more money and effort at it probably won’t change much at this point.
Or maybe if you care about reduction of the risk of your death (and risk of your death by suicide), your expected suicide rate is already extremely low.
If you asked people “how likely are you to die by suicide in the next 5 years” I’d expect results order of magnitude below real expected death rate.
It’s difficult to imagine what would make you commit suicide, but some thing make people do it all the time.
But the reference class is not the people who said they are unlikely to die by suicide, it’s the people who want to reduce their risk of death, by means such as taking driving exams. I’d say strong self preservation prevents suicide.
Do we actually have any statistical basis whatsoever to infer that?
For obvious counterpoint, if depressive realism hypothesis is true, people who are most likely aware of risks are also most likely to be depressed, and most likely to commit suicide at some point in the future. (I have no idea how strong effect this way is).
I’m just suggesting that because the suicides are major risk, doesn’t mean that survivalists can do a lot about that risk. Besides, if one is to trust own reasoning in the future one shouldn’t try to prevent suicide.
Not so, when I was speculating on all the most effective actions for preventing their own suicide almost none of them were about simply preventing the implementation of a suicide preference. Most involved improving your life in such a way that suicide is not desirable. This allows for trust in your own reasoning. (Enter Buffy, “Give me something to sing about!”).
… then one is horribly wrong already. People make wrong decisions all the time for variety of reasons. People do not have utility functions or anything remotely like that. (see Alicorn’s Luminosity for entertaining fictional evidence of that, Gianna’s transformation in particular)
How do you do about protecting the altered yourself from altered yourself, in the future, though? I sure would try to prevent myself going depressed, and i’d try to keep my cognition working correctly, but that’s about it. It is already partial death if you changed too much.
edit: btw i live in the country with #1 suicide rate in the world (lithuania). I knew some guy who was suicidal (edit: he actually ended up in hospital at some occasion, idk if he’s still alive even), he was outright weird in general, e.g. cutting himself to show some ultra bitchy gf that he loves her. Single anekdote, I know, but that’s how many of the suicides are.
This suggests an easy way to drastically reduce your risk—just move somewhere else. EU is all open to you (and even in the middle of economic crisis, most of EU is not as badly affected as Lithuania).
That’s one obvious thing to do. Due to criminally negligent lack of research I cannot really say much more.
I’m going to for other reasons, though, honestly, I think its very much cultural and maybe heritable, and I’m not Lithuanian.
Other issue is anti-depressants, they were found to raise risk of suicide. (which also makes dubious their efficacy at anything; the suicide rate is the only objective measure of depression that is not co-measuring the whining, and it’s not improved by anti-depressants. Suggesting that the anti-depressants are an “anti-whining medication”)
I’m not an expert in depression or suicide or Lithuania. If you’re high risk for any reason (like living in Lithuania), it would probably be a good use of your time to take a look at research.
Sounds like the smoking lesion problem. Maybe people who are more predisposed to suicide in the first place take more anti-depressants.
There are studies that were controlled for this, as much as possible.
The double blind trials found no statistically significant effect of medication on attempted suicide rate due to too small sample sizes:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21450154
(see the wide 95% ci). Such findings were reported by media—thanks the advertisment money from manufacturers—as the connection having been disproved. It’s a multi billion dollar subject. Mankind is bad at processing multi billion dollar subjects.
[insert standard peeve against frequentists’ ridiculous usage of significant here]
It is not a disease in itself, so on first look living between people who do suicide a lot is not a problem. There might be a common factor in the environment that leads to it. Look into vitamin deficiencies, and social factors, like the way people relate to each other, availability of closeness and company etc.
There also is a copycat effect after reports on suicides. Studies indicated that just the reporting leads to a higher rate. Not just earlier suicides of people who where about to anyway, but actually more.
Best case I am aware of is the German series: death of a pupil. Each time it was showed on TV suicides went up notably. Responsible media therefore does not report much about suicides.
That sounds like the EDT answer to the Smoking Lesion Problem. (Especially now that he said he’s not Lithuanian himself, though you couldn’t know that when you wrote your comment.)
Well, the place is rather depressing to top everything of, i’d have to say. I’m probably going to move out sometime late this year actually, not because of suicide risks, but possibly because of the stuff that may be making people here suicidal. I have some immigration issues, actually—I moved out of some other place to the east of Lithuania, and while i do reside here legally, i don’t have free movement within EU (in theory) yet.
Regarding the risk levels, the correlation between being in Lithuania and being suicidal is still fairly weak evidence for me being suicidal.
Weird fact: Lithuania and South Korea are #1 and #2 in both the suicide rates and internet speeds.
Which provides a counterexample to the idea I had in the back of my mind, that scarcity of sunshine in winter had something to do with the high suicide rates in northern Europe: they’ve got plenty of sunshine all year round in South Korea. (Of course, generalizations from two example have got to be pretty meaningless.)
Without historical info, yeah. My understanding is that South Korea used to have one of the lowest suicide rates in the world.
(Am I the only one who’s bothered by the x axis in Fig. 1.1 not being logarithmic? It makes no sense for (say) Switzerland to be horizontally further away from New Zealand than (say) New Zealand is from India!)