Simpler simulations are more likely. But so are simpler universes. (For the same reason?)
To me it seems like “simulation” can refer to two different things:
“passive simulation” where someone just sets up the rules and simulates the entire universe. This should be indistinguishable from a real universe that happened to have the same laws of physics.
“active simulation” where someone intervenes in the universe, and causes miracles. Where miracles refer to anything that does not happen according to the internal laws of physics. It could be something seemingly non-magical, like inserting yourself in the universe as another seemingly ordinary human.
I guess we should be able to only detect the active simulation, by observing the miracles. Problem is, the miracles can be quite rare, and by definition we cannot replicate them experimentally. If someone just magically entered this universe thousand years ago, had some fun but didn’t do anything impactful (beyond the standard butterfly effect), and plans to return thousand years in the future… there is hardly an experiment we could set up to detect this. Heck, even if I told you “tomorrow at 12:00, somewhere on this planet a new adult human being will miraculously appear—that’s the avatar of the simulator”, unless you happen to see this on camera, there is no way to prove it. There universe is complex enough so that you can’t calculate how exactly the future should look like, therefore you will not notice a small change. (Unless the changes are intentionally made in the way that causes large change, e.g. if the simulator inserts themselves as a superhero who solves the greatest humanity’s problems.)
Not sure I get what you mean by simpler universes. According to the SH simulated universes greatly outnumber any real universes.
The bold statement is to be able to actually extract experimental consequences also for passive simulations, even if only probabilistically. Active simulations are indeed interesting because they would give us a way to prove that we are in a simulation, while the argument in the post can only disprove that we are in one.
A possible problem with active simulations is that they may be a very small percentage of the total simulations, since they require someone actively interacting with the simulation. If this is true, we are very likely a passive simulation.
Simpler simulations are more likely. But so are simpler universes. (For the same reason?)
To me it seems like “simulation” can refer to two different things:
“passive simulation” where someone just sets up the rules and simulates the entire universe. This should be indistinguishable from a real universe that happened to have the same laws of physics.
“active simulation” where someone intervenes in the universe, and causes miracles. Where miracles refer to anything that does not happen according to the internal laws of physics. It could be something seemingly non-magical, like inserting yourself in the universe as another seemingly ordinary human.
I guess we should be able to only detect the active simulation, by observing the miracles. Problem is, the miracles can be quite rare, and by definition we cannot replicate them experimentally. If someone just magically entered this universe thousand years ago, had some fun but didn’t do anything impactful (beyond the standard butterfly effect), and plans to return thousand years in the future… there is hardly an experiment we could set up to detect this. Heck, even if I told you “tomorrow at 12:00, somewhere on this planet a new adult human being will miraculously appear—that’s the avatar of the simulator”, unless you happen to see this on camera, there is no way to prove it. There universe is complex enough so that you can’t calculate how exactly the future should look like, therefore you will not notice a small change. (Unless the changes are intentionally made in the way that causes large change, e.g. if the simulator inserts themselves as a superhero who solves the greatest humanity’s problems.)
Not sure I get what you mean by simpler universes. According to the SH simulated universes greatly outnumber any real universes.
The bold statement is to be able to actually extract experimental consequences also for passive simulations, even if only probabilistically. Active simulations are indeed interesting because they would give us a way to prove that we are in a simulation, while the argument in the post can only disprove that we are in one.
A possible problem with active simulations is that they may be a very small percentage of the total simulations, since they require someone actively interacting with the simulation. If this is true, we are very likely a passive simulation.