(1) You got the numbers wrong. “Half the time” should say “1/4 of the time”, the first “1/4 of the time” should say “half the time”, and “once at night” should say “twice at night”.
(2) It’s all very well to state that the situation is different but you haven’t provided any reason why (i) a long sequence of (back-to-back) single week experiments should treated differently from a long sequence of two week experiments. Indeed, the two are the same in every respect except whether some of the coins are tossed in advance, or why (ii) a long sequence of back-to-back single week experiments should be treated differently from just one single week experiment.
(1) You’re right, I got the numbers wrong. Thanks.
(2) If she knows she is somewhere along a two week path, the probabilities are different than if she knows she is somewhere along a one week path. She’s conditioning on different information in the two cases.
Well, you do have to specify whether the subject knows in advance that the experiment is going on for two weeks, or if they’re separate experiments—it changes the subject’s knowledge about what’s going on. Though I’m not sure whether anyone thinks that makes much of a difference.
(1) You got the numbers wrong. “Half the time” should say “1/4 of the time”, the first “1/4 of the time” should say “half the time”, and “once at night” should say “twice at night”.
(2) It’s all very well to state that the situation is different but you haven’t provided any reason why (i) a long sequence of (back-to-back) single week experiments should treated differently from a long sequence of two week experiments. Indeed, the two are the same in every respect except whether some of the coins are tossed in advance, or why (ii) a long sequence of back-to-back single week experiments should be treated differently from just one single week experiment.
(1) You’re right, I got the numbers wrong. Thanks.
(2) If she knows she is somewhere along a two week path, the probabilities are different than if she knows she is somewhere along a one week path. She’s conditioning on different information in the two cases.
Well, you do have to specify whether the subject knows in advance that the experiment is going on for two weeks, or if they’re separate experiments—it changes the subject’s knowledge about what’s going on. Though I’m not sure whether anyone thinks that makes much of a difference.