Con­di­tional pre­dic­tion mar­kets are ev­i­den­tial, not causal

philh7 Feb 2024 21:52 UTC
55 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

A Back-Of-The-En­velope Calcu­la­tion On How Un­likely The Cir­cum­stan­tial Ev­i­dence Around Covid-19 Is

Roko7 Feb 2024 21:49 UTC
5 points
36 comments5 min readLW link

Nitric ox­ide for covid and other viral infections

Elizabeth7 Feb 2024 21:30 UTC
39 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

De­bat­ing with More Per­sua­sive LLMs Leads to More Truth­ful Answers

7 Feb 2024 21:28 UTC
88 points
14 comments9 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Choos­ing a book on causality

martinkunev7 Feb 2024 21:16 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

More Hyphenation

Arjun Panickssery7 Feb 2024 19:43 UTC
87 points
19 comments1 min readLW link
(arjunpanickssery.substack.com)

Read­ing writ­ing ad­vice doesn’t make writ­ing easier

Henry Sleight7 Feb 2024 19:14 UTC
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(open.substack.com)

[Question] What’s this 3rd se­cret di­rec­tive of evolu­tion called? (sur­vive & spread & ___)

lemonhope7 Feb 2024 14:11 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Train­ing of su­per­in­tel­li­gence is se­cretly adversarial

quetzal_rainbow7 Feb 2024 13:38 UTC
15 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Math of Sus­pi­cious Coincidences

Roko7 Feb 2024 13:32 UTC
30 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How to deal with the sense of de­mo­ti­va­tion that comes from think­ing about de­ter­minism?

SpectrumDT7 Feb 2024 10:53 UTC
13 points
71 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum Dar­winism, so­cial con­structs, and the sci­en­tific method

pchvykov7 Feb 2024 7:04 UTC
6 points
12 comments9 min readLW link

Why I think it’s net harm­ful to do tech­ni­cal safety re­search at AGI labs

Remmelt7 Feb 2024 4:17 UTC
26 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

story-based de­ci­sion-making

bhauth7 Feb 2024 2:35 UTC
89 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Full Driv­ing En­gage­ment Optional

jefftk7 Feb 2024 2:30 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

How to train your own “Sleeper Agents”

evhub7 Feb 2024 0:31 UTC
91 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

My guess at Con­jec­ture’s vi­sion: trig­ger­ing a nar­ra­tive bifurcation

Alexandre Variengien6 Feb 2024 19:10 UTC
75 points
12 comments16 min readLW link

Ar­ro­gance and Peo­ple Pleasing

Jonathan Moregård6 Feb 2024 18:43 UTC
26 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(honestliving.substack.com)

What does davi­dad want from «bound­aries»?

6 Feb 2024 17:45 UTC
44 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] How can I effi­ciently read all the Dath Ilan wor­ld­build­ing?

mike_hawke6 Feb 2024 16:52 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Prevent­ing model exfil­tra­tion with up­load limits

ryan_greenblatt6 Feb 2024 16:29 UTC
66 points
21 comments14 min readLW link

Evolu­tion is an ob­ser­va­tion, not a process

Neil 6 Feb 2024 14:49 UTC
8 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Why do we need an un­der­stand­ing of the real world to pre­dict the next to­kens in a body of text?

Valentin Baltadzhiev6 Feb 2024 14:43 UTC
2 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

On the De­bate Between Je­zos and Leahy

Zvi6 Feb 2024 14:40 UTC
64 points
6 comments63 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why Two Valid An­swers Ap­proach is not Enough for Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coat6 Feb 2024 14:21 UTC
6 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

Are most per­son­al­ity di­s­or­ders re­ally trust di­s­or­ders?

chaosmage6 Feb 2024 12:37 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

From Con­cep­tual Spaces to Quan­tum Con­cepts: For­mal­is­ing and Learn­ing Struc­tured Con­cep­tual Models

Roman Leventov6 Feb 2024 10:18 UTC
8 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Fluent dream­ing for lan­guage mod­els (AI in­ter­pretabil­ity method)

6 Feb 2024 6:02 UTC
45 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Selfish AI Inevitable

Davey Morse6 Feb 2024 4:29 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Toy mod­els of AI con­trol for con­cen­trated catas­tro­phe prevention

6 Feb 2024 1:38 UTC
51 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Things You’re Allowed to Do: Univer­sity Edition

Saul Munn6 Feb 2024 0:36 UTC
94 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

Value learn­ing in the ab­sence of ground truth

Joel_Saarinen5 Feb 2024 18:56 UTC
47 points
8 comments45 min readLW link

Im­ple­ment­ing ac­ti­va­tion steering

Annah5 Feb 2024 17:51 UTC
68 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

AI al­ign­ment as a trans­la­tion problem

Roman Leventov5 Feb 2024 14:14 UTC
22 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Safe Sta­sis Fallacy

Davidmanheim5 Feb 2024 10:54 UTC
54 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How has in­ter­nal­is­ing a post-AGI world af­fected your cur­rent choices?

yanni kyriacos5 Feb 2024 5:43 UTC
10 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A thought ex­per­i­ment for com­par­ing “biolog­i­cal” vs “digi­tal” in­tel­li­gence in­crease/​explosion

Super AGI5 Feb 2024 4:57 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Notic­ing Panic

Cole Wyeth5 Feb 2024 3:45 UTC
57 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

EA/​ACX/​LW Fe­bru­ary Santa Cruz Meetup

madmail4 Feb 2024 23:26 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Vi­talia Ra­tion­al­ity Meetup

veronica4 Feb 2024 19:46 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Per­sonal predictions

Daniele De Nuntiis4 Feb 2024 3:59 UTC
2 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

A sketch of acausal trade in practice

Richard_Ngo4 Feb 2024 0:32 UTC
35 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Brute Force Man­u­fac­tured Con­sen­sus is Hid­ing the Crime of the Century

Roko3 Feb 2024 20:36 UTC
216 points
156 comments9 min readLW link

My thoughts on the Beff Je­zos—Con­nor Leahy debate

Ariel Kwiatkowski3 Feb 2024 19:47 UTC
−5 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

The Jour­nal of Danger­ous Ideas

rogersbacon3 Feb 2024 15:40 UTC
−25 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(www.secretorum.life)

At­ti­tudes about Ap­plied Rationality

Camille Berger 3 Feb 2024 14:42 UTC
108 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

Prac­tic­ing my Hand­writ­ing in 1439

Maxwell Tabarrok3 Feb 2024 13:21 UTC
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Finite Fac­tored Sets to Bayes Nets Part 2

J Bostock3 Feb 2024 12:25 UTC
6 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Why I no longer iden­tify as transhumanist

Kaj_Sotala3 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC
55 points
33 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

At­ten­tion SAEs Scale to GPT-2 Small

3 Feb 2024 6:50 UTC
77 points
4 comments8 min readLW link