Saul Munn
Explaining Impact Markets
Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition
The Inner Ring by C. S. Lewis
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
Invest in ACX Grants projects!
Link Collection: Impact Markets
Get your tickets to Manifest 2024 by May 13th!
Solving Two-Sided Adverse Selection with Prediction Market Matchmaking
Retro funder profile & Manifund team recs (ACX Grants 2024: Impact Market)
OPTIC: Announcing Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournaments in SF, DC, Boston
Last Chance: Get tickets to Manifest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
I think institutional market makers are basically not pricing [slow takeoff, or the expectation of one] in
why do you think they’re not pricing this in?
thanks for the feedback on the website. here’s the explanation we gave on the manifest announcement post:
In the week between LessOnline and Manifest, come hang out at Lighthaven with other attendees! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend casual workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the (again, literal) fire late into the night.
Summer Camp will be pretty lightweight: we’ll provide the space and the tools, and you & your fellow attendees will bring the discussions, workshops, tournaments, games, and whatever else you’re excited about organizing.
Here are the types of events you’ll see at Summer Camp:
Hackathons (or “Forecastathons”)
Organized discussions and workshops
Jam sessions and dance parties
Games of all kinds: social deception games, poker, MTG, jackbox, etc.
Campy activities: sardines, s’mores, singalongs
Multi-day intensive workshops, e.g. a CFAR-style workshop or a Quantitative Trading Bootcamp (Note: these may come at some extra cost, TBD by the organizers)
let me know if you have other questions.
I think a lot of what I write for rationalist meetups would apply straightforwardly to EA meetups.
agreed. this sort of thing feels completely missing from the EA Groups Resources Centre, and i’d guess it would be a big/important contribution.
This may be a silly question, but- how does cross posting usually work?
iirc, when you’re publishing a post on {LessWrong, the EA forum}, one of the many settings at the bottom is “Cross-Post to {the EA forum, LessWrong},” or something along those lines. there’s some karma requirement for both the EA forum and for LW — if you don’t meet the karma requirement for one, you might need to manually cross-post until you have enough karma.
are there norms on EA forum around say, pseudonyms and real names, or being a certain amount aligned with EA?
re: pseudonyms: though there’s a general, mild preference for post authors to use their real names, using a pseudonym is perfectly fine — and many do (example).
re: alignment: you don’t need to be fully on-board with EA to post on the forum (and many aren’t), but the content of your post should at least relate to EA.
for other questions regarding the norms on the EA forum, here’s a guide to the norms on the EA forum. (on that guide, they have a section on “rules for pseudonymous and multiple accounts” and “privacy and pseudonymity.”)
*i’ll edit & delete this part later, but: i’ll get back to you over email in a bit! caught up with other stuff, and getting to things one at a time :)
Manifest 2023
thanks oli, and thanks for editing mine! appreciate the modding <3
Really love this post. Thanks for writing it!
I really enjoyed this — thank you for writing. I also think the updated version is a lot better than the previous version, and I appreciate the work you put in to update it. I’m really, really looking forward to the other posts in this sequence.
I’d also really enjoy a post that’s on this exact topic, but one that I’d feel comfortable sending to my mom or something, cf “Broad adverse selection (for poets).”
cf “there’s no speed limit”