I’m an admin of this site; I work full-time on trying to help people on LessWrong refine the art of human rationality. (Longer bio.)
I generally feel more hopeful about a situation when I understand it better.
Non-disclosure agreements I have signed: Around 2017 I signed an NDA when visiting the London DeepMind offices for lunch, one covering sharing any research secrets, that was required by all guests before we were allowed me access to the building. I do not believe I have ever signed another NDA.
Not OP, but I take the claim to be “endorsing getting into bed with companies on-track to make billions of dollars profiting from risking the extinction of humanity in order to nudge them a bit, is in retrospect an obviously doomed strategy, and yet many self-identified effective altruists trusted their leadership to have secret good reasons for doing so and followed them in supporting the companies (e.g. working there for years including in capabilities roles and also helping advertise the company jobs). now that a new consensus is forming that it indeed was obviously a bad strategy, it is also time to have evaluated the leadership’s decision as bad at the time of making the decision and impose costs on them accordingly, including loss of respect and power”.
So no, not disincentivizing making positive EV bets, but updating about the quality of decision-making that has happened in the past.